The time has come for compensatory pick projections on the NFL calendar for the following spring, and if the formulas are accurate this time around, the Kansas City Chiefs should be looking at two additional late-round picks in the 2025 NFL Draft.
The latest compensatory pick predictions are out from the wonderful folks at Over the Cap, and they've got the Chiefs slated to earn two extra seventh-round picks.
The Chiefs could be looking at two additional late-round draft selections next spring if compensatory formulas hold up.
To explain the process a bit more, every year the NFL Draft is held over the last weekend in April and features 32 teams making 7 rounds worth of selections. However, at the end of each round beginning in Round 3, the NFL awards compensatory picks to those franchises who have lost the most talent in free agency from the previous year—all in an attempt to help promote parity.
The actual formula is a bit of a league secret but Over the Cap's compensatory projections are often spot-on year over year.
As an example of how the compensatory formula works, the Chiefs have lost four free agents that would qualify as big enough losses for a potential compensatory pick. Nick Allegretti signed with the Washington Commanders. Tommy Townsend is now the punter for the Houston Texans. Willie Gay Jr. and Mike Edwards both signed one-year deals in free agency with the New Orleans Saints and Buffalo Bills, respectively.
On the flip side, the Chiefs signed Marquise Brown and Carson Wentz to one year deals as well, which negated the losses of Allegretti and Townsend—at least per OTC's projections. That leaves Gay and Edwards as low-level losses in the Chiefs' favor that would earn them two extra picks at the tail end of the seventh round.
While low-level picks aren't that important for many teams, the Chiefs have struck gold there in recent years with running back Isiah Pacheco, cornerback Jaylen Watson, and more. Last year's seventh-round pick, cornerback Nic Jones, should be vying for real playing time in 2024, and this year's selection—Holy Cross OL C.J. Hanson—should be an intriguing developmental play for the long term.
The official list of compensatory picks will be forthcoming as the 2025 NFL Draft gets closer.