The 2024 NFL Draft is now complete and we can finally start to analyze the seven new players that were selected by the Kansas City Chiefs. Draft grades are always a much-debated subject at this time of the year. Everyone wants to see what grades their favorite team received, but then they always respond to any negative grade with some version of "Draft grades are stupid. You can't grade a draft until we see how these players turn out."
While I agree that we won't know how successful a draft class is until we see how the players turn out on the actual field, I do think it's fair to grade teams on how well they spent their draft currency. If a team uses their first-round pick on a running back when they had other major needs at premium positions and there were players available at those positions that were consistently higher ranked on big boards, it's fair to criticize that pick. On the other end of the spectrum, if a team was able to match needs with top talent at premium positions, it's fair to praise that process even before the players take a snap in the NFL.
I do sometimes find myself frustrated when draft grades seem to only factor one part of the equation into them. Filling needs is a part of a draft grade, but it shouldn't be the only thing. Getting perceived value by taking the best player available regardless of position does factor into the grades, but it shouldn't be the only factor either. It also drives me crazy when I feel like people assign a grade to my favorite team that doesn't seem to have a good grasp of what the team really needs or what players fit the systems that the team uses.
That brings us to these Chiefs draft grades that I'm going to hand out today. In these grades I'm going to look at draft slot value compared to the Consensus Big Board put together by Arif Hasan, positional need, scheme fit, athletic profile, age, and how much I like the tape I've seen on them. I'll even back up my opinions with numbers or opinions from people who I've come to respect in the draft world.
Does that mean these grades will be perfect and you'll agree with every one of them? Of course not, but debating the grades is part of what makes draft grades fun. So let's kick things off with the Chiefs first pick.
Round 1 - Pick 28 - Xavier Worthy - WR - Texas - 6'1" - 165 pounds
Value: Xavier Worthy was the #33 overall player on the Consensus Big Board. I think being within five spots of the consensus ranking means that he went right about where he was expected to go. I don't think the Chiefs got great value, but I also don't think five spots represent a reach.
Need: The Chiefs had a clear need at wide receiver and clearly wanted to get more explosive at the position. Worthy definitely is a perfect fit for that need.
Fit with the Chiefs: We know Andy Reid likes speed in his offense. We've seen guys like DeSean Jackson and Tyreek Hill be featured weapons and Worthy seems like he has the potential to be the next in line for that role. I think it also is meaningful that there was a widespread "not the Chiefs!" response to the Worthy pick that tells you that outsiders see this as a natural fit as well.
Athletic Profile: I'll be listing each player's Relative Athletic Score (RAS). It's a simple way to score a player's overall athleticism for their size. Worthy has an impressive 9.41 (out of 10) RAS. That score is fueled by his insane 4.21 40-yard dash, which included a 99th percentile 10-yard split to go with the blazing long speed. He was also in the 99th percentile for vertical jumps with a 41" vertical. The bottom line here is that Worthy has amazing explosion as well as long speed. He's just insanely thin at just 165 pounds.
Age: Worthy just turned 21 on Saturday. In a draft full of older prospects, he is young enough that he can absolutely continue to develop both in terms of his technique/route running and physically. If he can add another 15 pounds of good muscle weight over the next few years it could help neutralize what is seen as his one real area of concern.
Film: I really like a lot of things in Worthy's film. His record-breaking athletic testing numbers absolutely pop off the screen when you watch him. You can also see his elite change of direction in his route running and how it creates great separation. I also really like how he tracks the ball in the air while running at a high speed. The two things I didn't like on film are his ability to play through physical contact and how inconsistent the passing game (specifically the quarterback play) was at Texas. It made it hard to evaluate Worthy as a true receiver at times.
What Do the numbers and experts Say?: Worthy had an average drop rate of 6.3% last season. That's not great or bad. He was only successful on 23.8% of his contested catch opportunities thanks to his questionable play strength. However, the Pro Football Focus Draft Guide did score him a perfect 10 out of 10 on vertical long speed and change of direction/acceleration. Matt Waldman's well-respected Rookie Scouting Portfolio had Worthy as the 4th best wide receiver in this class with a talent score of 91.9/100 which puts him in his "Franchise Player" category.
Draft Grade: A-
There is legit concern about Worthy's play strength at 165 pounds. However, if he didn't have that worry there is no way he makes it to pick 28 in the draft. Considering Worthy's upside and special skills and how perfectly he matches what the Chiefs like to do it's hard to criticize this pick. When you factor in his young age, it makes it even better.
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