Can the Bills end the Chiefs' run of dominance? Expert predictions are divided

The NFL playoff divisional round's premiere matchup is nearly here. On Sunday evening, the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs play the Buffalo Bills on the road. This is the first time in quarterback Patrick Mahomes' playoff career that they will play a true road postseason game (no, Super Bowl LV doesn't count).

The AFC West champions will have their hands full against the second-seeded Bills in a rowdy Highmark Stadium. The Chiefs are looking for their sixth consecutive AFC Championship game appearance, dating back to Mahomes' first season as a starter. Bills quarterback Josh Allen may have a 3-1 regular-season record against Mahomes. But Mahomes wins when it matters most, ushering Buffalo out of the playoffs twice, in 2021 and 2022.

These two teams matched up on Dec. 10, 2023, at Arrowhead Stadium. The Bills left Kansas City with a 20-17 win, one with plenty of contention among fans. Kadarius Toney will not be available to lineup offsides on Sunday, so the Chiefs have that edge already.

Will Mahomes continue his postseason dominance over Buffalo? How will health affect this game? Plus, will the lake effect snow cause more trouble to fans or the teams? Our experts look at all these factors and more to predict who faces the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC title game.

The defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs take on the Bills in a must-watch playoff game. Don't miss our expert predictions and analysis.

Tyler Brown
I know it is just a two-game sample size, but the Chiefs are playing their best football of the year. It turns out that when you have a defense this good, kicking field goals is not all that bad. In the games against the Bengals and Dolphins, the Chiefs have put together 13 scoring drives out of 20 possessions. Even though there are only three touchdowns tallied in those, that will play in January, given that the Chiefs' defense has allowed more than 24 points just one time this season and has allowed more than 21 just twice. The Bills are hot too, but in their six-game win streak, they have narrowly beaten the Chiefs, Chargers with Easton Stick, Patriots with Bailey Zappe, and the Dolphins. Kansas City should have a chip on their shoulder, being an underdog heading up to Buffalo.
Chiefs 23, Buffalo 20

Price Carter
It's not often that the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes get to feel like underdogs. This week is one of the rare occasions where they can. The Chiefs have more rest, they are the healthier team, and they have the better quarterback, head coach, and defense. The only thing causing the Chiefs to lose this game is themselves. If they are shooting themselves in the foot time and time again that opens the door for Josh Allen. Spags masterclass on defense and Mahomes gets just enough to get the win.
Chiefs 21, Bills 17

Matt Conner
It’s hard for me to even drum up much worry when it comes to the Bills here, which feels odd given that they’ve won three of the last four matchups. But Pacheco has never played much against the Bills and the offense has found its focal points, while the defense continues to do the heavy lifting.
Chiefs 22, Bills 13

Josh Fann
Everyone keeps making a big deal about how this game will be on the road, but Mahomes' record on the road doesn't indicate hell struggle at all. I believe the matchup looks a lot different this time with a healthy Pacheco added back to the Chiefs offense and Drue Tranquill back on defense to cover James Cook out of the backfield. This will be another close one, but I think the Chiefs have closed the gap on the Bills since their regular season game.
Chiefs 27, Bills 20

Greg Florkowski
This is a big game showdown against two of the AFC’s best teams. The headliners may be the gunslingers Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, but on Monday morning the national media will be talking about the Chiefs' defense as they stifle the hot Buffalo Bills in the blizzard in Orchard Park. Isaiah Pacheco has a big day on the ground, and Travis Kelce shows he still has some gas left in the tank. The Chiefs win a close one.
Chiefs 30, Bills 27

Jacob Milham
The attention is rightfully on each team's quarterbacks, but this game will be won on the defensive side. Kansas City comes into the game relatively healthy, while the same cannot be said of the Bills. Nick Bolton, Mike Pennel, and Drue Tranquil will all have big impacts on limiting Buffalo's run game, the foundation of Joe Brady's offensive game plan. The Chiefs offense will still have their red zone issues, but a depleted Bills defense will break like a folding table on fire.
Chiefs 29, Bills 20

Shawn O'Brate
The Chiefs and the Bills are tricky, the Bills defense is broken down but we’ve seen what Josh Allen can do against teams, including KC, so it’ll come down to the mistakes on offense. Will Allen throw three picks or none? Will KC drop six passes or two? That’ll be the key to the game.
Chiefs 32, Bills 28

Charles Robinson
"Can Mahomes stay undefeated in the playoffs against Josh Allen?"

"How will Mahomes fare in his first road playoff game?"

"Can Mahomes carry the Chiefs to victory?"

All of those questions matter and have been beaten to death all week, but the real question is this - how do Jawaan Taylor and Donovan Smith respond to the crowd noise in Buffalo this weekend? If the Chiefs tackles buckle under pressure and have multiple drive-killing penalties, the Chiefs stand little to no chance of pulling this out. But the Bills have had lady luck on their side recently, and I wonder if they're going to drain the tank on her a little too early. The Chiefs looked different last week, and I have a gut feeling that they are peaking at the right time.
Chiefs 27, Bills 24

Stacy Smith
On Sunday, the Chiefs and Bills will add another chapter to an epic postseason tale. This time, the Bills will host on the frozen terrain of Orchard Park. The Chiefs will enter the game relatively healthy coming off their best offensive performance since mid-December. In his first road playoff performance, I expect Patrick Mahomes to be laser-focused and efficient. He'll have Isiah Pacheco to help shoulder some of the production load this time (he missed the regular season tilt). I expect Kansas City's defense to lead the way, but a rejuvenated offense to do just enough to keep the Chiefs' postseason aspirations alive. Pacheco has a big day, Mahomes throws for two touchdowns, and the Chiefs win.
Chiefs 28, Bills 24

Lucas Strozinsky
This was as tough of a game to pick as any all season. If my life depended on predicting this game correctly, I'd pick the Chiefs. But my life isn't on the line, so I'm going with Buffalo. Don't be discouraged, the last time I picked against the Chiefs in a playoff game was last year's AFC Championship and we all know how that turned out.
Bills 24, Chiefs 20

Grant Tuttle
Not only is Buffalo beat up, but they now have to contend with a more talented team than they eked by earlier in the season. With Pacheco, Bolton, and Tranquil at or near full health, it seems like it might be a day of reckoning for Josh Allen and the Bills, who have yet to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs.
Chiefs 31, Bills 17