Betting odds and best bets for NFL Week 1

There are times when the NFL offseason feels like it drags on, like the 60-ish days between the NFL draft and the beginning of training camp, but for the most part, the NFL has done an exceptional job of marketing even the most routine of annual events to make them feel like milestones between doses of football. The start of free agency used to be something people would read about in the paper when it happened, now it's marked on almost every football fanatic's calendar. The schedule release used to be something you could find on your team's website the day the NFL released it, now it's a days-long process with every "insider" on Twitter (X now, I guess?) taking their best stab at which teams will play on what weeks by a gradual process of elimination.

Even the NFL Draft, which used to be a two-day ordeal, is now a multi-night primetime event that brings in hundreds of thousands of fans to the host city and has become an event bigger than most championship games in other sports. The NFL is King, and they have done an excellent job of condensing the amount of time we have away from football. For some that's a great thing, for others, it can be a little overbearing. If it's overbearing for you in the off-season, I'd encourage you to find a hole to crawl into for the next six-ish months, because football is back, and that means your most reliable* betting guide featured on any Chiefs-centric blog on the internet is back, baby!

* = shot 62.8% from the field last year in my picks, probably not the best on the internet, but better than most.

We're back this year giving you what you want: ill-advised picks from a gambler who hasn't actually placed a bet himself in years. That's right, even though I'm officially retired, I'm still bringing the people what they want with the 4 (or 5) best picks on the NFL slate each and every week. Don't be mistaken, I'm not some washed-up schlub doling out picks that aren't winning me any money. I have no money on the line and am more like a "betting consultant" for the people.

Having said that, I accept no responsibility for potential monetary losses you may incur from reading this, and all responsibility for the winners I give you.

We'll be bringing you weekly odds and our best bets each and every week this year!

Without further adieu, here are the lines for this weekend's NFL action, along with the 4 best bets I see in this weekend's NFL slate.

Sunday September 10 - Noon (CDT)
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3) - Over/Under 42
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-10) - Over/Under 44.5
Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Cleveland Browns - Over/Under 48
Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) at Indianapolis Colts - Over/Under 43.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) - Over/Under 45.5
Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints (-3.5) - Over/Under 41.5
San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers - Over/Under 40.5
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders (-6) - Over/Under 39

Sunday September 10 - 3:25 PM
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-2.5) - Over/Under 44
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3.5) - Over/Under 43.5
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) - Over/Under 50.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-5) at New England Patriots - Over/Under 45
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-6) - Over/Under 47.5

Sunday Night Football - September 10 - 7:20 PM
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at New York Giants - Over/Under 46

Monday Night Football - September 11 - 7:15 PM
Buffalo Bills (-1) at New York Jets - Over/Under 46

Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) at Indianapolis Colts - Over/Under 43.5

The Jags looked like one of the best teams in the AFC towards the end of the season last year, and hung with the Super Bowl Champ Chiefs in the divisional round until Patrick Mahomes decided to create yet another historic postseason moment and put them out of their misery on one leg.

Nevertheless, Trevor Lawrence and the Jags look primed to run it back in the South this year behind a revamped receiver corps now including the dangerous addition of Calvin Ridley. While it may be ironic to include Ridley in a write-up about gambling, we won't find an ironic result in this one on Sunday. The Jags will cover 4.5 easily against a Colts team who has no clue who they are or want to be in Week 1.

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) - OVER 50.5

This has the makings of the most exciting matchup of the opening weekend - worst case it's top 3 with Chiefs/Lions and Bills/Jets. Miami's offense can be as explosive as any in the league if their offensive line can keep Joey Bosa and co. off of Tua, and we all know the Chargers can put up points in bunches. Betting the over in Week 1 on the second-highest line of the weekend seems risky, but a wise man once told me "Scared money don't make no money". Let's pray for fireworks.

Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders (-6) - Over/Under 39

I wrote about this in my weekly picks column, but there seems to be very little hope for the Cardinals to make much noise this season. Not only are they starting the season without Kyler Murray, but their head coach is attempting to motivate the team by surveying whether his group of young, wealthy athletes brought their own cars or public transit to the building for team meetings. If that's the best highlight the Cardinals film crew has of Jonathan Gannon motivating the team, the pickings are slim. They'll need more fire in their guts than what Gannon can ignite to stick with the Commanders.

Philadelphia Eagles (-5) at New England Patriots - Over/Under 45

Patriots'This seems like a trap line. I know the Patriots defense is always stiff and outperforms expectations, and I know it's "Belichick at Foxborough", but the Pats aren't that good, right? And the Eagles? Shouldn't they be better—or at least just as good—as they were last year when they went 14-3 and went to the Super Bowl? Maybe I'm missing something, but Eagles -5 feels like an absolute lead pipe lock on Sunday.