One of the top questions for the Kansas City Chiefs during this past offseason was how they would address their wide receiver issues from last season. The Chiefs provided a big part of the answer to that question when they used their first round draft pick on Xavier Worthy out of Texas. The other major addition at the position was the signing of veteran Marquise "Hollywood" Brown who's injury in their first preseason game could shift their gameplan.
Head coach and offensive guru Andy Reid has a reputation for running an offensive system complex enough for wideouts that it makes it difficult for rookies to make a big impact. The "norm" is for lesser talented wideouts that know the system inside and out to get reps over rookies who may have more natural talent, but are inexperienced. As the season would go on, you would see Reid phasing the rookie in more and more as they master the playbook and get more comfortable.
Last season Chiefs fans actually got to witness one of the more productive rookie wideout seasons in Andy Reid's long and storied coaching career. Rashee Rice ended the year with 79 receptions for 938 yards and 7 touchdowns. Those are really good rookie numbers for any wideout, but for an Andy Reid rookie they are truly fantastic. The Chiefs lack of reliable veteran options at receiver last season definitely played a huge part in that.
So what should Chiefs fans be expecting from Xavier Worthy this season? Rashee Rice is looking more and more likely to play most of the season because it appears his offseason legal issues may not be resolved in time for a suspension this season. The Chiefs also still have Travis Kelce who will be a central part of the offense once again despite his advancing age. Then there is Hollywood Brown that seemed poised to be a one year stopgap that might give Worthy time to develop, but with Brown's recent injury it will likely force Worthy into a bigger role right out of the gate.
Still, at some point Brown will be back (he should be plenty motivated to get back ASAP) and should get plenty of playing time. So if Rice, Kelce, and Brown all play a major role in the pass catching game this season, how much will be left over for Xavier Worthy? It certainly looks like Worthy will be a major contributor based on how heavily he's been involved with the first string offense all through training camp. Perhaps we can find some insight into his production by looking at another one of Andy Reid's former receivers.
Reid's Philadelphia Eagles drafted DeSean Jackson with their 2nd round pick in the 2008 NFL Draft (Author's Sidenote: How was that already16 years ago?). Jackson measured in at 5-foot-10 and 169 pounds at the NFL combine and was known for his deep speed. Similarly, Worthy measured in at 5-foot-11 and 165 pounds. He also set the NFL combine record with a 4.21 forty time. So it's not hard to see where the comparison would come from, especially since they'll be playing in the same coaches offensive system.
So what did DeSean Jackson do as a rookie?
62 receptions
912 receiving yards
2 receiving touchdowns
Jackson also added a rushing touchdown and a punt return touchdown as well. So he scored 4 total touchdowns as a rookie. He did that in 15 games played. So is that a reasonable expectation for Worthy? Let's factor in a missed game or two and say Worthy plays 15 games as well. That would be an average of about 4 catches for 60 yards per game to get to around those same numbers. That seems reasonable to me.
The history of Andy Reid's career definitely points towards a low expectation for rookie receivers, but the Chiefs still have plenty of need for wide receiver production. You mix in how heavily involved he's been in training camp, the injury to Marquise Brown to start the year, and Reid's history with a similar style of receiver in DeSean Jackson and I think those numbers seem possible.
I would also add that Jackson's numbers came in an even less productive passing attack than what KC has had with Patrick Mahomes. Donovan McNabb passed for just 3,916 yards that season. Patrick Mahomes has averaged 4,690 passing yards per season over his six years as a starter. If he were to hit that average this season and Worthy did hit Jackson's 912 receiving yards, that would still leave 3,778 yards for KC's other targets.
So what do you think Chiefs fans? Does DeSean Jackson's rookie stat line feel reasonable for Worthy this season? Does Reid's track record with rookie wideouts make you hesitate to think that's realistic? Are you actually hoping for even bigger numbers than that from Worthy this season? I'd love to read your thoughts in the comments below.