AFC Playoff Picture, Week 14: How far have the Chiefs fallen?

In Patrick Mahomes' debut at Lambeau Field in Week 13, the Chiefs fell flat against the Green Bay Packers in yet another forgetful performance by their wide receivers.

After what appeared to be a step in the right direction last week for the offense, it turned out to be just a mirage. Despite racking up 337 yards, the unit was unable to score on two drives with a chance to take the lead and one to potentially tie the game.

Last week, the Chiefs stood pat as the #2 seed since every other divisional leader won. This week, the Chiefs stumbled to the #3 seed.

Heading into Week 13, the Chiefs were within a half game of the #1 seed in the AFC, but where are they today?

AFC playoff picture, Week 14

1. Miami Dolphins (9-3)

2. Baltimore Ravens (9-3)

3. Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)

6. Cleveland Browns (7-5)

7. Indianapolis Colts (7-5)

In the hunt: Houston Texans (7-5), Denver Broncos (6-6), Cincinnati Bengals (6-6), Buffalo Bills (6-6), Los Angeles Chargers (5-7), and Las Vegas Raiders (5-7).

The Texans defeated the Broncos after a costly Russell Wilson interception. The Chargers shut out the Patriots in Foxborough in a 6-0 thriller. The Colts escaped the Titans in overtime. The Dolphins crushed the Commanders after a strong game from Tyreek Hill.

The Steelers got crushed by the Cardinals after two weather delays. The Jets lost to the Falcons in a game loaded with terrible quarterback play. The Joe Flacco-led Browns lost in Los Angeles against the Rams. The Chiefs were upset by the Packers at Lambeau Field. The Bengals stunned the Jaguars on Monday Night Football after Trevor Lawrence left the game in the 4th quarter with an apparent lower-body injury.

After losing twice in the last three games, the Chiefs' margin for error is gone, and they need help securing the vital #1 seed in the AFC. If the Chiefs are going to land home-field advantage for the AFC playoffs, they need to win out and require both the Ravens and Dolphins to lose at least one game the rest of the way.

Because the Chiefs have only lost one game to an AFC opponent this season (6-1 record), while the other top AFC contenders have at least three conference losses or have lost to the Chiefs straight up, that gives Kansas City a very favorable advantage for tiebreakers. If the Jaguars are without Trevor Lawrence for at least multiple weeks, that pretty much removes them as a threat to finish ahead of the Chiefs in the regular season standings, while the Ravens and Dolphins have much more difficult remaining schedules than KC.

According to Team Rankings, the Ravens are now the favorite to land the #1 seed at 37.1%. After them are the Dolphins at 28.9%, then the Chiefs at 23.6%, and finally the Jaguars at 8.2%. The Ravens are also favorites to win Super Bowl LVIII in the AFC at 15.7%. They're both followed by the Dolphins (10.7%), Chiefs (10.5%), and the Jaguars (3.1%).

The Chiefs are leaking oil on offense and there's no questioning that they're limited on that side of the ball. Their margin for error on offense is zero as they aren't good enough to overcome any inconveniences, such as a penalty or a sack. Their red zone efficiency has been inconsistent and their wide receivers cannot separate against competent defensive backs.

Kansas City is still capable of beating anyone in the AFC, but they need to play through their defense to do so. Despite having Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, they're not the same team that can hang 30+ points on any defense and they need to play like it. They need to open up their rushing offense and shorten the rotation at wide receiver. Barring a small handful of snaps here and there, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore need to ride the bench.

As long as Patrick Mahomes is on the active roster, I will never doubt the Kansas City Chiefs' ability to win the Super Bowl, but I will question it. Worse teams have made championship runs, so it's foolish to count out the Chiefs, but it's fair to be skeptical.