49ers vs. Chiefs betting preview, odds and prediction for Super Bowl 58

October 23, 2022; Santa Clara, California, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15)
October 23, 2022; Santa Clara, California, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) / Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

It's a great time to be a Kansas City Chiefs fan! They will return to the Super Bowl for the fourth time in the past five seasons, seeking their third championship in the Patrick Mahomes era.

This time, they'll face the 49ers in a rematch of Super Bowl 54. Last time, they were able to best the 49ers by a final score of 31-20. Can they do it again in 2024?

In this article, I'm going to break down everything you need to know to bet on the game, as well as my best bet.

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49ers vs. Chiefs odds, spread, and total

49ers vs. Chiefs betting trends

  • 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games
  • Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. Chiefs
  • The OVER is 6-3 in the 49ers' last nine games
  • Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games
  • The UNDER is 5-1 in the Chiefs' last six games
  • Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. NFC West opponents

49ers vs. Chiefs injury reports

San Francisco 49ers injury report

  • Kalia Davis - DT - IR-R

Kansas City Chiefs injury report

  • Charles Omenihu - DE - Out
  • Kadarius Toney - WR - Questionable
  • Willie Gay - LB - Questionable
  • Joe Thuney - G - Questionable
  • Prince Tega Wanogho - OR - IR-R

49ers vs. Chiefs how to watch

  • Date: Sunday, February 11
  • Game Time: 6:30 pm ET
  • Venue: Allegiant Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): CBS
  • San Francisco 49ers Record: 14-5
  • Kansas City Chiefs Record: 14-6

49ers vs. Chiefs key players to watch

San Francisco 49ers

Christian McCaffrey: The key to victory for the 49ers in this game is their running back, Christian McCaffrey, who's averaging 5.1 yards per carry in the playoffs while adding in four touchdowns in two games. The weakness of the Chiefs' defense is their run defense, which means McCaffrey has to have a big day. If he doesn't, the 49ers are going to be in trouble if they're forced to throw the ball.

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes: Obviously, the Chiefs most key and important player is Patrick Mahomes. This team goes as far as he takes them and he's been near flawless in the postseason throughout his career. If he can lead them to another championship, he's on pace to match Tom Brady's career. This is a big one for the Chiefs quarterback.

49ers vs. Chiefs prediction and pick

Instead of making a bet on a side in this game, I think the best bet to make is on the UNDER. It may not make for the most exciting game, but we need to bet with our brains and not our hearts.

The Chiefs and 49ers rank second and third in the NFL in opponent points per game. The Chiefs allow just 16.8 while the 49ers give up just 18.4, which is a combined points allowed per games of 35.2. That's 13 points fewer than what OVER bettors will need to cash their bet.

Let's also remember that this isn't the same version of the Chiefs that we've seen in years past that beat teams in offensive shootouts. They're now a defensive-driven team that does enough on offense, while not turning over the football, to win games. That's reflected in their OVER/UNDER record this season which is 14-6 to the UNDER, cashing the UNDER at a 70% rate. Only the Chargers and Panthers (70.6%) hit the UNDER at a higher rate.

There's no arguing about how elite the Chiefs defense is. They're in the top five in the NFL in opponent EPA per play and opponent Success rate while also giving up the fifth fewest yards per play.

Let's be smart about this. The UNDER is the bet to make.

Iain's Pick: UNDER 47.5 point

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!