Plotting the trajectory of the Kansas City Chiefs can go one of two ways in 2026. After winning only six games a year ago and sitting out the postseason for the first time in over a decade, doubters will look at the franchise and project even more misery for a team that could be viewed as top-loaded with aging stars, lacking in proven depth, and depending on more Patrick Mahomes magic even as he returns from torn knee ligaments.
That's not the dominant view.
A look at the preseason win totals projected for a new season have the Chiefs squarely back in the conversation for contender. Despite the steep decline in performance a year ago, oddsmakers are giving Kansas City the benefit of the doubt for having played in five of the previous six Super Bowls from 2019 to 2024.
Bettors can take the over or under for the Chiefs this year at 10.5 wins, which ties them for the second-highest win total coming into the '26 season.
The Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Rams are tied atop the expectations pyramid with win totals of 11.5. The Ravens are also an interesting projection here, like the Chiefs, after falling to a sub-.500 record last year as well. For a team with a new head coach (Jesse Minter), it feels optimistic to think that the Ravens are the team du jour in the AFC. Then again, that's how some would feel about the Chiefs.
Preseason win totals are out from oddsmakers and there's plenty of belief in the Chiefs despite their 6-11 record a year ago.
The Rams' positivity makes a lot of sense after the team invested in a major secondary upgrade. A blockbuster trade for Trent McDuffie and the signing of Jaylen Watson robbed Kansas City of its two best pass defenders, and the Rams look primed for a championship run with the return of Aaron Donald and Matthew Stafford at the helm.
Tied with the Chiefs with a win total of 10.5 are several franchises. Last year's Super Bowl winners, the Seattle Seahawks, as well as the reigning AFC champs, the New England Patriots, are in the same boat as the Chiefs. The Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals are other AFC teams at the same level, while the NFC has the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles.
As for teams inspiring the least amount of belief in their ability to generate wins in 2026, the Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins are tied at 4.5 apiece. That's not surprising given the quarterback situations for both and the general lack of talent across the roster. Both teams will be in the hunt for the top pick in the 2027 NFL Draft next April.
As for the rest of the AFC West, the Chiefs are at the top with 10.5, which is just one win more than the Denver Broncos, who took the division title a year ago, and the L.A. Chargers. The Las Vegas Raiders, who have Fernando Mendoza taking over as starting quarterback, are listed at 5.5 wins.
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