NFL playoff picture, Week 12: Contenders close in on Chiefs in AFC's race to the top

The Kansas City Chiefs' perfect run ended Sunday as they fell to rival Buffalo Bills in a game where both offense and defense had critical lapses.

Despite their 9-1 record, the Chiefs face several concerns. After Jaylen Watson's injury, thin cornerback depth has exposed their secondary. The left tackle position remains unstable. Patrick Mahomes has struggled throwing the ball deep. Even with all of that, they maintain control of the AFC's top seed, controlling their playoff destiny.

After the eleventh week of the 2024-25 NFL season, which teams are currently in a playoff position, which teams are just on the outside looking in, and which teams are already out of the playoff race?

AFC Playoff Standings, Week 12

1. Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)

2. Buffalo Bills (9-2)

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2)

4. Houston Texans (7-4)

5. Los Angeles Chargers (7-3)

6. Baltimore Ravens (7-4)

7. Denver Broncos (6-5)

In the hunt: Indianapolis Colts (5-6), Miami Dolphins (4-6), and Cincinnati Bengals (4-7).

The Dolphins cruised to victory over the Raiders for their second consecutive win. The Steelers edged out their archrival Ravens despite failing to score a touchdown. Anthony Richardson's clutch touchdown propelled the Colts past the Jets. The Vikings handed the Titans a home loss. Taysom Hill dominated as the Saints routed the Browns. The Rams defeated the Patriots after a Drake Maye through the game-losing pick. The Lions thoroughly dominated the Jaguars.

The Bills ended the Chiefs' perfect season as Josh Allen iced the game with an amazing touchdown run. The Broncos destroyed the Falcons as Bo Nix played extremely well. The Chargers staved off the Bengals' comeback attempt to win a thriller on Sunday Night Football. The Texans cruised by the Cowboys on Monday Night Football.

The Dolphins could emerge as a sleeper Wild Card contender if the Tua-Hill connection reignites, while the Raiders' season is beyond salvaging. The Steelers' clutch performances continued in a must-win game, derailing the Ravens' hopes for the AFC's top seed. Anthony Richardson's promising play keeps the Colts in playoff contention, while the Jets' season to forget continues.

The Titans must now focus on maximizing their likely top-five draft selection. Jameis Winston has not been enough to save the Browns. The Patriots need to build around Maye with improved protection and weapons. The Jaguars' collapse could lead them back to familiar territory, selecting first overall in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Despite their record, the Chiefs have a few holes, while the Bills now have hope for the No. 1 seed. The Broncos should be a wild-card team come January. The Chargers will be a problem come playoff time, while the Bengals have used all of their margin for error. Although the Texans won in blowout fashion, plenty of questions about them remain.

An early look at AFC playoff odds

According to Team Rankings, the Chiefs remain the favorites to secure the AFC's #1 seed with a 47.6% chance. The Bills are behind them at 36.4%, while the Steelers (11.6%) are the only other real contender.

The Bills are now the favorites in the AFC to win Super Bowl LIX at 15.2%. The Chiefs are second with a 12.5% chance to win it all. They're followed by the Ravens at 5.3%, while the Steelers (4.9%), Texans (3.1%), and Chargers (2.8%) are right behind them.

Despite this setback, the Chiefs remain in control of their playoff destiny and the AFC's top seed. While they must address some issues - particularly their secondary depth and downfield passing attack - securing home-field advantage throughout the playoffs remains well within reach.