NFL playoff picture, Week 10: Chiefs open up substantial lead in AFC

The Kansas City Chiefs continue to march through the 2024 regular season, maintaining their perfect record. In their first home game in almost a month, the Chiefs welcomed their fans back with a primetime victory.

In a thrilling Monday Night Football matchup, Kansas City defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in overtime, with Kareem Hunt scoring the game-winning touchdown. Patrick Mahomes was superb, recording his first turnover-free game of the season as well as his first outing with at least three passing touchdowns since Week 7 of the 2023 campaign.

After the ninth week of the 2024-25 NFL season, which teams are currently in a playoff position, which teams are just on the outside looking in, and which teams are already out of the playoff race?

AFC Playoff Standings, Week 10

1. Kansas City Chiefs (8-0)

2. Buffalo Bills (7-2)

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)

4. Houston Texans (6-3)

5. Baltimore Ravens (6-3)

6. Los Angeles Chargers (5-3)

7. Denver Broncos (5-4)

In the hunt: Indianapolis (4-5), Cincinnati Bengals (4-5), and New York Jets (3-6).

On Thursday Night Football, the Jets kicked off Week 4 by taking down the Texans. The Titans earned a dramatic overtime win against the Patriots, notching just their second victory of the season. Tyler Bass hit a 61-yard field goal to lift the Bills over Miami. Joe Burrow lit up the Raiders' defense with a five-touchdown performance as Cincinnati secured their first home win. The Ravens dismantled the Broncos in a dominant bounce-back performance.

The Chargers crushed the Browns as the Bolts' defense intercepted Jameis Winston three times. The Jaguars couldn't complete the comeback against the Eagles as Trevor Lawrence threw a game-ending interception. The Colts fell to the Vikings on Sunday Night Football. The Chiefs squeaked by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football.

The Jets may have finally won a game, but the Texans' glaring flaws stole the spotlight. In the battle of basement dwellers, the Titans and Patriots' overtime slugfest looked more like an audition for the #1 pick. The Bills' firepower is undeniable, yet their defensive vulnerabilities cast doubt on their postseason ceiling, while the Dolphins are still not a playoff contender with Tua Tagovailoa back under center.

The Bengals' offensive fireworks can't mask their defensive shortcomings, though the Raiders are completely dysfunctional. The Ravens, as always, look unstoppable in the fall, but January glory remains a question mark. As for the Broncos, they're barely a footnote in the playoff conversation – if they manage to sneak in at all, they'll be nothing more than a speed bump for real contenders.

The Chargers will be in the playoff hunt for the remainder of the season, but likely lack the firepower to be considered true Super Bowl contenders. Jameis Winston's standout performance against Baltimore last week appears to have been an outlier. Trevor Lawrence must step up, or else the Jaguars may come to regret their hefty $275 million investment. Regardless of whether it's Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco under center, the Indianapolis Colts' offense will continue to struggle. Despite the victory, the Chiefs' defense uncharacteristically struggled late in the game.

An early look at AFC playoff odds

According to Team Rankings, the Chiefs remain the favorites to secure the AFC's #1 seed with a 70.0% chance. Following them are the Bills at 17.2%, while the Steelers (5.6%), Ravens (2.5%), and Texans (2.3%) are next.

The Chiefs also remain the AFC leaders in Super Bowl LIX odds with a 18.1 chance to win it all. They're followed by the Bills at 11.4%. The Ravens are next at 8.5%, while the Steelers (4.7%), Chargers (2.7%), and Texans (2.4%) are right behind them.

The Kansas City Chiefs may not be the flashiest team in the NFL, but their effectiveness is undeniable. Their defense is the league's best, Patrick Mahomes is heating up, and Andy Reid knows how to steer the ship. They're not without flaws, having turned the ball over in every game so far and leaving points on the board in their latest victory. If they can keep DeAndre Hopkins involved and find a way to offset the loss of Jaylen Watson, they'll be an extremely tough out come January.