Luther Burden's falling draft stock could play right into Chiefs' hands in NFL Draft

Missouri's star receiver Luther Burden III felt like a sure-fire top 10 pick a few months ago. Kansas City Chiefs (and Missouri fans) could only fantasize of the talented star playing with Patrick Mahomes. However, as we draw closer and closer to the NFL draft, Burden's stock seems to be falling.

Burden peaked at No. 11 on the consensus big board and is now all the way down to No. 19 overall. Even more notable is what some of the most plugged-in draft voices are saying. Recently, Mel Kiper, Daniel Jerimiah, and Todd McShay all had Burden outside of the first-round in their mock drafts.

Does the league know something we don't know about Burden? Maybe. But it seems crazy to think a player with his talent could be falling into the Chiefs' laps.

NFL Draft Profile: Luther Burden III, WR, Missouri

Age: 21 (when drafted)

Height: 5-11

Weight: 205 lbs. (unofficial)

Player Comparison: DJ Moore

Luther Burden's Background

A Missouri native, Burden attended East St. Louis High School and stayed in-state when he committed to the Missouri Tigers. Burden was a five-star recruit who was the top-rated receiver in his class, and he received more than a dozen college offers—including Alabama and Georgia.

Burden burst onto the scene in his rookie year with two touchdowns in his first game. He finished his true freshman season with 45 receptions, 375 yards, and 4 touchdowns to go with 18 rushes for 88 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also had a touchdown on a punt return.

Burden's sophomore season (2023) is why he began the year as a consensus top-10 pick. With 86 receptions, 1,212 yards, and 9 touchdowns (First-Team All-SEC, Second-Team All-American), Burden helped the Tigers win the Cotton Bowl over Ohio State. Due to inconsistent QB play and some down performances, Burden wasn't able to stack his great seasons, as 2024 yielded 61 receptions for 676 yards and just 6 scores.

Why Luther Burden III fits the Chiefs

Elite yards after catch - Every time Luther Burden touches the ball, it feels like he can turn it into an explosive play. Missouri was constantly finding ways to get him the ball, including lining him up at running back (above clip) in the sweep and screen game as well. His explosiveness and contact balance make it easy for him to evade defenders and break tackles. Even in a down year in 2024, Burden forced a career-high 30 missed tackles.

Ball tracking - Despite being a YAC weapon, Burden has plenty of ability to not only track the ball in the air but to win at the catch point as well. Burden was credited with 6 contested catches in 2024 via PFF. Despite being somewhat undersized for an outside receiver, Burden plays bigger than his size at the catch point but has the speed to break away and track the ball in the air.

Versatility - Not only was Burden used all over the formation (in the backfield, slot, and out wide), but he also won in several different ways as a receiver. There are plenty of manufactured touches in his game, but nearly 60 percent of his target opportunities have come on vertical fades and go routes, shallow and deep crosses, and wide receiver screens. Burden can be a "joker" in a well-schemed offense.

Concerns for Luther Burden for the Chiefs

Route Running - Since Burden came onto the scene for the Tigers, it has always felt like the team was trying to force the ball to him in as many ways as possible. Obviously, part of that is because of the talent he has, but it's also due to him not being the most refined route runner, especially if a team like the Chiefs wants to use him as an outside presence rather than a slot receiver.

Traits - Burden falls into the category of just being "pretty good at everything." However, there's not a dominant trait in his game. His size is average, his top speed is average. There's not an elite part of his profile other than his YAC ability, which is a trait that can be found in many other places in the draft.

Press coverage - Because Missouri was so creative with him moving at the snap, using stacks and free releases, there's not a ton of tape of Burden beating press man coverage. Players like Malaki Starks have been able to limit him in these situations. Ultimately, this should be avoidable with a smart offensive mind that can use him correctly.

Final analysis for Luther Burden III

Burden's fall down draft boards is still puzzling, but it seems hard to believe smart teams ahead of the Chiefs like the Buffalo Bills, Washington Commanders, Baltimore Ravens, and L.A. Rams would let a player like Burden pass them by. However, the future of the Chiefs offense being Luther Burden, Rashee Rice, and Xavier Worthy is how you make Patrick Mahomes a happy man.

The Chiefs' offense needs to feel scary again, so having several guys who can stretch the field vertically and horizontally is essential. Burden's strengths line up with what the Chiefs love to do on offense and they would highlight his skill set well.

With the final year of Travis Kelce's career coming, the Chiefs have to work to find stars on offense. A talent like Luther Burden would be incredibly hard to pass on if he starts falling in the draft.