The Kansas City Chiefs ranked 25th in the NFL last season in rushing yards and haven't had a running back top 1,000 yards over the past eight seasons. After the failed first-round draft pick of Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Chiefs have tried to skimp on the running back position and let Patrick Mahomes and the passing game carry most of the weight of the offense. That plan changed this offseason when the Chiefs' biggest free-agent signing was Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker.
Andy Reid will never run an offense that is "run heavy," but the Chiefs recognized that Mahomes and the passing game could use a little more support, and they have an offensive line up front that they haven't taken full advantage of. So, with Mahomes coming off the most significant injury of his career, the Chiefs are hoping that Kenneth Walker can be a legitimate threat in the run game that opposing defenses have to game-plan for. The question is, just how much should we expect Andy Reid to run Walker?
Andy Reid's history with feature running backs
Andy Reid has been a head coach in the NFL for 27 years. In those 27 seasons, he has had a 1,000-yard rusher just nine times. That's 33%, or one-third of his coaching career. The other two-thirds, he has either had a less efficient runner or more of a committee approach. Before we even look at what the ceiling for Walker's usage is in KC, it's probably worth asking the question of whether a massive rushing season is even in the best interest of the Chiefs.
In the nine seasons where Reid had a 1,000-yard rusher, his record was a combined 83-77 for a winning percentage of about 52%. In the 18 seasons that Reid didn't have a 1,000-yard rusher, his record was a combined 196-96-1 for a winning percentage of about 67%. This isn't a groundbreaking revelation. The NFL is a passing league, and Reid's best seasons in both Philadelphia and Kansas City were when his star quarterback (Donovan McNabb or Patrick Mahomes) was highly successful.
Of the six 1,000-yard seasons that running backs had under Reid in Philadelphia, only half of them came during McNabb's prime years. Duce Staley's 1,273 yards in Reid's first season came before McNabb became the full-time starter, and LeSean McCoy's two 1,000-yard seasons came after McNabb was done in Philly and Reid was leaning more on the run game with Michael Vick at quarterback.
It was just Staley's 1,029-yard season in 2002 and Brian Westbrook's back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2006 and 2007 that happened during the prime years of McNabb's career. However, in both 2002 and 2006, McNabb started just 10 games because of injury. Then, the three 1,000-yard seasons by Chiefs running backs that Reid oversaw were all before Mahomes took over as quarterback. Jamaal Charles put up over 1,000 yards in Reid's first two seasons in KC, and then Kareem Hunt rushed for over 1,300 yards as a rookie in Alex Smith's final year as the starter.
Patrick Mahomes has never had a 1,000-yard rusher in his eight seasons as the full-time starter. Kareem Hunt would have likely hit that mark in Mahomes' first season as the starter if he hadn't been released after the first 11 games, having already rushed for 824 yards. The closest anyone else came to the mark during the Mahomes era was Isiah Pacheco in 2023, when he rushed for 935 yards.
Andy Reid has made six Super Bowls in his career. In those six seasons, his leading rusher averaged about 768 rushing yards. In his three Super Bowl wins, his leading rusher averaged just 754 yards on the season (that average is brought down by Damien Williams' 498 rushing yards in 2019). So there is no correlation between Reid's best seasons and having a top back who produced big numbers. If anything, it's the opposite.
How many carries should Kenneth Walker get?
Meanwhile, Kenneth Walker has averaged about 889 rushing yards per season in the first four years of his career, including going over 1,000 yards twice: in his rookie season (2022) and last year's Super Bowl-winning 2025 season. His worst season was 2024, when he played in just 12 games and rushed for 573 yards. In his other three mostly healthy seasons, Walker averaged around 220 carries per season.
If Walker were to be around 220 carries and average his career 4.3 yards per carry, that would put him at about 946 rushing yards. While some might think that falling short of 1,000 rushing yards after the financial commitment the Chiefs made in him would be a letdown, that might actually be a realistic expectation, assuming that Reid continues to feature Patrick Mahomes despite his injury rehab this season.
Walker's biggest selling point is his explosiveness, and if KC were to run him into the ground with 300 carries, you risk losing that burst that they so desperately need. Plus, as the numbers pointed out earlier, Reid's best seasons have been when the passing game was thriving, so KC really just needs Walker to produce enough to make life easier for Patrick Mahomes.
Reid has had his top running back go over 200 carries in 14 of his 27 seasons, or just over 50%. Duce Staley did it twice, Brian Westbrook did it three times, LeSean McCoy did it three times, Jamaal Charles did it twice, Spencer Ware did it once, Kareem Hunt did it twice, and Isiah Pacheco did it once. With the exception of Spencer Ware and Kareem Hunt the second time in 2024, the other 12 times Reid's top back got over 200 carries, it was a true No. 1-caliber back that Reid trusted to carry the ball. Those backs were Staley, Westbrook, McCoy, Charles, and Hunt the first time. Walker definitely fits that mold, so getting 200-plus carries this coming season seems very reasonable.
Reid rarely leans on his feature back much more than that, though. He's only had a running back have more than 250 carries in a season five times. Two of those five were his first seasons in Philly and KC, when he was still trying to teach his passing system. So if you take out his first seasons at a job, only three of his other 25 seasons have used a back that heavily (Duce Staley in 2002, Brian Westbrook in 2007, and Kareem Hunt in 2017). So expecting Kenneth Walker to top his career high of 228 carries this season seems unlikely, but the 200-220 carry range seems about right.
Why 1,000 yards isn't the benchmark
Let's say that Walker were to be in the middle of that range at 210 carries this season, and let's say that, with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback keeping defenses honest, he matched his 4.6 yards per attempt from last season. That would put him at 966 rushing yards. Whether it's around his 890-yard career average or that 966-yard mark we just figured, that range feels about right for what fans should expect this season.
The Chiefs' running game was in desperate need of an upgrade after the past couple of seasons, and signing Kenneth Walker should definitely give KC the boost they are looking for if he stays healthy for most of the season. That having been said, Reid's history doesn't point to Walker putting up record-setting numbers with the Chiefs. However, if Patrick Mahomes is healthy and playing well, there isn't a need for Walker to get overused, so this could be a perfect match, even if that means Walker won't single-handedly win you your fantasy league this season.
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