Two weeks ago, the Kansas City Chiefs overcame a 20-9 fourth-quarter deficit to defeat the Indianapolis Colts in overtime. With this victory, the Chiefs not only defeated a quality AFC opponent but also saved their season, as they entered the game with a 5-5 record and had not won a game since October 27. The elation from that gritty, come-from-behind win lasted all of four days, as the Chiefs spoiled Thanksgiving by losing 31-28 to the Dallas Cowboys.
With ten days of rest, the Chiefs have had plenty of time to move past their disappointment in Dallas and prepare for their pivotal matchup against Houston. The implications for this week's game are eerily similar to those leading up to the matchup against the Colts. The Chiefs have their backs against the wall and are in desperate need of a home win against a playoff-caliber AFC South opponent. However, in this case, the situation is more dire with just five weeks remaining in the regular season. The Chiefs have used up all their margin for error this season, and a loss on Sunday would effectively put any playoff hopes to rest.
With a 6-6 record, Kansas City sits 10th in the AFC standings, sandwiched between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Miami Dolphins. While a win wouldn't place them among the seven playoff occupants, it would create positive momentum for a team in significant need of it. Additionally, if the Chargers were to lose to the Eagles on Monday night, Kansas City would have the opportunity to move past them in their Week 15 matchup.
The Chiefs have clear positive and negative advantages for this game. On the plus side, they will play in the friendly confines of Arrowhead Stadium, where they have been nearly unbeatable over the past two seasons. Since the beginning of the 2024 season, the Chiefs have lost just one game in front of their home crowd, that being against the Eagles on September 14. In what has been a challenging season, the Chiefs’ dominance at home has remained a constant. Some notable performances from the Chiefs at home this season include a 37-20 win over the Baltimore Ravens, a 30-17 win over the Detroit Lions, a 31-0 shutout victory over the Las Vegas Raiders, a 28-7 win over the Washington Commanders, and the aforementioned comeback win against Indianapolis.
The Chiefs need a win over Houston to keep their fading playoff hopes alive amid mounting injuries and a daunting Texans defense.
The Chiefs will also have the elements in their favor, as the temperature for Sunday night's game could drop as low as 16 degrees. Last season, the Texans traveled to Kansas City twice in the span of a month for a Week 16 matchup and the Divisional Round of the postseason. The temperature for those games was 30 degrees Fahrenheit (-1 Celsius) and 23 degrees (-5 Celsius), respectively, and the Chiefs came out victorious in both instances. The Texans, who play indoors, struggled to adjust in both instances, as they failed to score 20 points both times. In the playoff matchup, the Chiefs sacked Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud eight times en route to their seventh consecutive AFC Championship Game appearance.
While an eight-sack performance is unlikely to be replicated (especially given the Chiefs' inability to rush the passer this season), Kansas City’s defense will need to be at its best to win this game. The Chiefs' defense has been an inconsistent unit in 2025, as they have been borderline dominant at home and a sieve on the road. In six home contests, Steve Spagnuolo's unit has surrendered a minuscule 14.0 points per game, while allowing 23.5 points per game away from Kansas City. In fact, when removing the Week 3 contest against the Russell Wilson-led Giants (Kansas City's only win away from home this season), opponents are averaging 26.4 points per game—a 12.4-point difference from what they allow at home.
A strong defensive performance from the Chiefs will be essential, as the Texans boast one of, if not the best, defenses in the NFL. DeMeco Ryans' unit has allowed the fewest points, yards, and first downs in the league, and opposing passers have thrown just 12 touchdowns to 12 interceptions against them for only 5.1 net yards per attempt. The driving force of Houston's defense is their outstanding pass-rushing duo of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, who have combined for 21.5 sacks on the season. The Texans’ defensive dominance was on full display in their most recent primetime matchup, as they notched a whopping eight sacks of Josh Allen, one of the most elusive and athletic quarterbacks in league history.
What is made worse for the Chiefs is that they will be without three of their five preferred starters on the offensive line. Left tackle Josh Simmons, right guard Trey Smith, and right tackle Jawaan Taylor will all be sidelined Sunday night with injuries. In their spots will be Wanya Morris, Mike Caliendo, and Jaylon Moore, respectively. Logic dictates that Houston's ferocious front going up against Kansas City's makeshift offensive line could make scoring a struggle for the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes will do his best to keep his team in the game, but this presents his most difficult challenge of the season.
The Chiefs' defense going up against the Texans' offense creates a far more favorable matchup in this game. C.J. Stroud and the rest of Houston's offense have been inconsistent all season, failing to score 20 points on six occasions. This, combined with the Chiefs' defensive excellence at Arrowhead, could spell good news for Kansas City. With the exception of Nico Collins, the Texans don't present any other legitimate threats in the passing game, as Dalton Schultz, Jayden Higgins, Xavier Hutchinson, and Jaylin Noel round out their top five pass catchers by receiving yardage. Collins and Schultz are the only Texans pass catchers who have eclipsed 400 yards in 2025. To add, Houston also presents a porous offensive line, allowing 89 pressures of Stroud and Davis Mills, who has started three games this year. This could be a major opportunity for their struggling pass-rush unit to right the ship.
Overall, the Chiefs must find a way to beat the Texans if they want to avoid sitting at home on the second weekend of January. While this is a similar scenario to the Colts matchup, the Chiefs have no more mulligans to use in 2025, as they spent their final one in Dallas last Thursday. Missing the playoffs would represent a failed season in its own right, but it would be made even worse given how weak the AFC is in 2025. The Bills have severely limited pass catchers, the Patriots have taken advantage of an incredibly weak schedule, the Broncos have their issues on offense, and the AFC North has been the worst division in football.
If the Chiefs were to make the postseason, even as the seventh seed, nobody would be lining up to play them. However, any aspirations or hopes of playoff matchups would become moot with a loss to the Texans on Sunday night. This game is the 2025 Chiefs' last stand, and it will be incredibly interesting to see how they respond.