The Kansas City Chiefs season did not turn out how anyone in Chiefs Kingdom hoped it would. The Chiefs have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs for weeks, and Patrick Mahomes is rehabbing an ACL injury that could put the start of the 2026 season in question. The lone bright spot in an otherwise miserable season is that the Chiefs will have their highest draft slot in years. With an aging roster that needs more impact players, a potential top-ten pick would be huge. So what needs to happen in Week 18 for the Chiefs to secure a spot in the top ten?
First of all, for anyone who isn't familiar with the NFL's system for determining draft order, strength of schedule is the primary tiebreaker when teams finish with the same record. When two or more teams finish with the same record, the earlier draft pick goes to the team with the weakest strength of schedule. So there is more to where the Chiefs pick than just their wins and losses.
The Week 18 Games/Teams that effect the Chiefs Draft Position
With six teams (including the Chiefs) currently sitting with either a 6-10 or 7-9 record, the strength of schedule is going to have a huge impact on who drafts between picks 8–12 overall. That is the potential range the Chiefs could end up in, depending on how this week's games play out. Those six teams are the Chiefs, New Orleans Saints, Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, Atlanta Falcons, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Buccaneers currently have one more win than KC and mathematically cannot finish with a lower strength of schedule than the Chiefs, so we can remove them from the discussion moving forward. However, the other four teams competing with KC for draft position (the Saints, Bengals, Dolphins, and Falcons) could all finish ahead of or behind KC depending on how this week goes. To complicate matters, the Saints and Falcons are playing each other. Before we get to who you should pull for in that head-to-head matchup, let's address the biggest issue in this whole discussion.
The Chiefs are playing the worst team in the NFL this week. The Las Vegas Raiders are 2-14, have a 10-game losing streak, can lock up the first overall pick with a loss to the Chiefs, and are likely starting Kenny Pickett at quarterback. While it would obviously help KC's draft slot tremendously if they lost this game, it feels like the safe assumption should be that the Chiefs will win this one.
If the Chiefs did manage to lose to the Raiders, barring a couple of upsets, they would likely pick either 8th or 9th overall. That would largely depend on the Saints/Falcons game. If KC loses, then Chiefs fans want the Saints to win so that KC would jump over them and likely pick 8th overall (again, barring any other upsets). However, if KC beats the Raiders (as is expected), then KC fans should actually be hoping for a Falcons win over the Saints. Side note: the Los Angeles Rams own Atlanta's first-round pick, but it’s the Falcons’ strength of schedule that matters for this discussion.
If the Chiefs beat the Raiders and the Saints beat the Falcons, the Chiefs would need a bunch of other games to work out in their favor to prevent the Falcons from jumping them in the draft order. So if you think KC will likely beat the Raiders, you should be rooting for the Falcons in the early slate of games.
The other two games involving teams KC is competing with in the draft order are a bit more clear-cut. The 7-9 Miami Dolphins are playing the 13-3 New England Patriots, who are still in the running for the first overall seed in the AFC. If the Chiefs win and the Dolphins lose (as expected), the Dolphins will jump KC in the draft order.
The 6-10 Cincinnati Bengals are playing the 4-12 Cleveland Browns, with the Bengals currently a touchdown favorite. If the Bengals win, the Chiefs would very likely stay ahead of them in the draft order, even if KC beats the Raiders (the Chiefs would only need one of six games to go their way to lock in the strength-of-schedule advantage over the Bengals). So as painful as it might be, KC fans need to be cheering for the Bengals on Sunday.
If things go as expected and KC beats the Raiders, the Patriots beat the Dolphins, and the Bengals beat the Browns, the Chiefs would either pick 10th or 11th depending on the result of the Falcons/Saints game. In that scenario, KC fans would want the Falcons to win to stay ahead of them and pick 10th overall.
The scenario where KC gets all the way to the 8th pick would rely on KC losing to the Raiders and the Saints beating the Falcons. A KC win paired with a Falcons win would make the 9th pick very likely. The worst-case scenario for KC would be beating the Raiders, Miami losing, Cincinnati losing, and the Falcons losing, which would drop them all the way to 12th in the order.
If you're still confused, here's your cheat sheet for the Sunday slate of games.
Early games (12:00pm KC time):
- Cheer for the Bengals to beat the Browns.
- Cheer for the Falcons to beat the Saints if you think KC will likely beat the Raiders.
- Cheer for the Saints to beat the Falcons if you think the Raiders have a good chance to beat KC.
Late Afternoon games (3:25pm KC time):
- Cheer for the Dolphins to upset the Patriots.
- Cheer for the Chiefs, but deep down hope maybe the Raiders beat them to boost their draft position.
In addition to watching what could be some Chiefs' final game with the team, there is a lot on the line in terms of draft position this week. So enjoy what could be Travis Kelce's final game in red and gold and keep an eye on the other games above to see just where KC's highest draft slot of the Mahomes era will end up.