Statistics will not always tell the full story. The NFL is a week-to-week league and can deceive our thoughts at any moment on a given team. But as always, there are some notable trends to monitor going into specific matchups. That is true in the case of Sunday's Super Bowl rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers.
The Chiefs are 5-0 and will play their third total non-conference opponent this week. So far from the NFC, KC has beaten both the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints. Meanwhile, the 49ers are 3-3. They got a critical Thursday night win against their division rival Seattle Seahawks in Week 6. They could easily be 5-1, due to two different blown leads in the fourth quarter to the Los Angeles Rams and the Arizona Cardinals.
What are some interesting statistical notes to monitor entering Chiefs vs. 49ers? Here are three key stats going into Sunday's affair.
4-0
In the Patrick Mahomes era, the star quarterback is a perfect 4-0 against the San Francisco 49ers in his career. That, of course, includes two of his three Super Bowl wins, Super Bowl LVIII last year and Super Bowl LIV in the 2019 season.
Both Super Bowl victories included late comebacks and smart decisions at the end by Mahomes. What's more, Mahomes' career averages against the 49ers are pretty impressive. He has averaged 339 passing yards and a 68.1 completion percentage in those four games. His touchdown-to-interception ratio in those contests is 10:4.
As a team, the Chiefs have not had much issues putting points on the board. In these four games against San Francisco with Mahomes, Kansas City has scored 25 points or more in every outing. The only time they did not reach 31 points was last year's Super Bowl.
In KC's only trip to San Francisco with Mahomes at QB, the Chiefs scored a whopping 44 points. That is a pretty stellar résumé against a team that usually prides itself on being a suffocating defense.
21
Twenty-one is the number of wins that Andy Reid has as a head coach when coming off a bye week in the regular season. This is the earliest bye week that Kansas City has had in the Mahomes era yet, the Chiefs know that they will be well-prepared, especially going into a big game like this.
Reid's 21-4 record following a bye week in the regular season is at the top historically among NFL head coaches, according to NBC Sports. His win percentage of .840 is the best for any NFL head coach off a bye week (minimum 10 games coached after a bye week).
With Kansas City, the Chiefs have seen their fair share of tough matchups. Whether after a bye week or not, this team knows how to show up when the lights shine brightest. But to get the week off going into San Francisco, there are not many games where the bye week could have come at a better time in this particular regular season.
Opponent Rushing Yards Per Game
Entering Week 7, the Chiefs and the 49ers are two of the better run defenses in the league. San Francisco ranks seventh in the NFL in opponent rushing yards per game (101). Kansas City is a little bit better, ranking fifth in the NFL in opponent rushing yards per game (88.4). As Team Rankings shows, the Chiefs have been excellent in their last three games as a run defense, allowing just 61 rushing yards per game over those last few contests.
Much of the opponent rushing yards per game against the Chiefs is inflated by what Lamar Jackson did in Week 1. If you look at just running backs, KC has not even allowed a running back with at least 11 rushing attempts to eclipse 50 rushing yards in a single game this year. That includes a pretty impressive list of names like Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, J.K. Dobbins, and Bijan Robinson.
San Francisco has maybe not been as airtight as the Chiefs have against running backs. James Conner (86 rushing yards) and Ty Chandler (82 rushing yards) each had some solid days against them this season. A match-up against Kyler Murray also skews their run-defense marks a bit. If both run defenses continue to thrive on Sunday, however, it will truly be another fascinating finish between each of these top teams.