The Kansas City Chiefs had a fantastic start to the 2026 season. They won their first five games, including wins over all three of their AFC West opponents. The Los Angeles Chargers are winless after six weeks, and the Las Vegas Raiders have now lost four in a row and still have to come to Arrowhead later this season. Despite having played only six games, the Chiefs find themselves on the verge of taking complete control of the division, but one thing stands in their way: the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos started their season by getting dismantled by the Chiefs 31-10 in Week 1. The Broncos then dropped another game a few weeks later against the San Francisco 49ers. At that point, the defending AFC West champs were already a couple of games back of the Chiefs, and it looked like a repeat could slip away from them early. Since then, the Broncos have won three straight, and the Chiefs just got dominated and handed their first loss by the Seattle Seahawks.
The Broncos' win streak and the Chiefs' stumble now make their head-to-head matchup suddenly hugely impactful for the AFC West race this season. It's become cliché in the NFL to say "it's just one game," but in this case, this "one game" will determine one of two very different paths for the AFC West this season.
What this game means for the AFC West
If the Chiefs are able to rebound from their loss to the Seahawks and go into Denver and win on Sunday, they will have a two-game lead over the Broncos in the division, plus they will hold the tiebreaker over them since they swept the head-to-head matchup. That is essentially a three-game lead in the division. Yes, the Chiefs could still collapse and give up that lead, but barring a major meltdown, they would be in position to reclaim the AFC West after their down year last season.
However, if the Chiefs lose this game, then they find themselves in a dogfight with the Broncos for the rest of the season. The Broncos would instantly take over first place in the division with a record of 6-2, a half-game lead over the Chiefs, who would be 5-2. The tiebreaker would also become much more complicated. With the head-to-head games split, the next tiebreaker is division record, and if that is even, then it goes to record against common opponents. The Broncos beat the Seahawks a few weeks ago, so the Chiefs would have an uphill battle there as well.
Broncos have an easier road after Week 8
With KC having a down year last year and the Broncos winning the division, you might assume that the Broncos' remaining schedule would be harder, but that really isn't the case either. After this week's head-to-head matchup, the Broncos' remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of 44.1%. The Chiefs' remaining opponents after the Broncos have a combined winning percentage of 47.8%. So while neither team has an overly hard remaining schedule, the Broncos actually have a slightly easier one based on current records.
The Chiefs have an especially tough stretch starting in late November, when they go at the Bills, at the Rams, at the Bengals, vs. the Patriots, and then vs. the 49ers. The Broncos don't have a five-game stretch anywhere near that challenging left on their schedule. It would certainly be helpful for the Chiefs if they entered that brutal stretch with a two-game lead and the tiebreaker over the Broncos.
The Chiefs had a lot of issues that their loss to the Seahawks exposed last Sunday, but they need to come up with some answers quickly. This game against the Broncos isn't "just one game," but THE game that will determine if KC is comfortably in control of the AFC West or if the Chiefs and Broncos will be in a dogfight for the division for the rest of the season. Hopefully, Andy Reid and his staff have the Chiefs ready to make a statement on Sunday.
Add us as a preferred source on Google