Two years ago, the Kansas City Chiefs were on a special kind of winning streak. In 2024, they went 11-0 in games decided by one score on their way to the Super Bowl. By the time the streak was finally broken last year, they had gone a record-setting 17-0 in one-score games.
And then the wheels fell off. Whatever luck, or magic, or whatever they seemed to have had the entire previous year ran out. The Chiefs had an abysmal record last year in one-score games, which caused them to ultimately miss out on the playoffs (in part). Some call it regression to the mean. I call it reality.
The Chiefs' one-score magic hid some uncomfortable truths
In hindsight, most Chiefs fans were probably lying to themselves when they said that 2024 team was great. Getting blown out in the Super Bowl by the Eagles seemed to prove that. We skated by, often by the skin of our teeth. Then last year's collapse happened, and we couldn't keep kidding ourselves. The Chiefs for the last two years just weren't that good, and the incredible one-score win/loss metric seemed to prove it.
Which is what makes this past weekend's win against the Indianapolis Colts feel different. Yahoo Sports opened its game summary by saying, "Last season, the Kansas City Chiefs' magic in close games ran out. It might be back."
The Chiefs don't need luck to win close games anymore
I don't think so. I think this team is just good again. Sure, they ultimately only beat the Colts by 3 points—that one-score game metric again—but anyone watching that game should know this one felt different from the one-score games the Chiefs were rattling off two years ago.
This one came down to the wire. The victory was hard-fought. We didn't "luck" our way into a crazy game-ending fumble, block what would have been a game-winning kick, or get a first down on some controversial penalty.
Okay, so that first one did almost happen. But as Patrick Mahomes pointed out, thankfully it didn't. If that fumble had counted and the Chiefs won the game that way, then the conspiracy theories would be back. The win would have felt cheap again. People would be questioning whether the Chiefs are really back or if they are still just lucky.
There was no luck in the Chiefs marching their way down the field for a Harrison Butker game-winning field goal. The Chiefs proved that this one-score game was no fluke. In the immortal words of John Wick: "I'm thinking I'm back."
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