For the first time in a decade, the Kansas City Chiefs failed to make the playoffs last season. It was a tough blow but there's a first time for everything and it was indeed the first time that Patrick Mahomes did not reach the playoffs during his NFL career.
Mahomes was injured late in the season too, further handicapping the Chiefs in their final few games. Now that he's projected to be back under center for Week 1, the consensus is that he'll be an easy pick for the eventual Comeback Player of the Year award, which is handed out to the player who performs the best after a down year of some kind.
Recent recipients of the award have included Christian McCaffrey (2025), Joe Burrow (2024), and Joe Flacco (2023). McCaffrey and Burrow both won it after dealing with injuries the previous season and Flacco won it after basically being out of football and then returning and helping Cleveland make the playoffs.
Not everyone is on board with Mahomes making a run at the award, however. Conor Orr of Sports Illustrated recently released his bold predictions for the 2026 season and he didn't have Mahomes taking home the CPOTY award. Now, yes, these are bold predictions but he still put this out there. Check out what he said:
"Jayden Daniels will eventually edge out Deshaun Watson, though the point is that both of these quarterbacks will have a major reversal of fortune in 2026," Orr wrote. "While this development feels surprising, given that the Watson trade is understood as one of the worst in NFL history thanks to his slew of injuries, poor play and unsavory path to Cleveland, there is also the acknowledgement that Monken is far more accustomed to working with a quarterback of Watson’s skill set than former Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski was. Meanwhile, Daniels now comes under the tutelage of rising young star coordinator David Blough, who will elevate the Commanders’ offense and place Daniels in a position to hunt for more explosive plays."
Patrick Mahomes not picked to win CPOTY
Again, these are bold predictions and going with Deshaun Watson to win the Comeback Player of the Year award is quite bold indeed. Watson's tenure with the Browns has been absolutely abysmal but he is somehow in the running to be their starting quarterback in 2026, which is possibly the most Browns statement ever.
As for Jayden Daniels winning it over Mahomes, that feels less bold. Daniels was amazing as a rookie in 2024 and helped lead the Commanders to the NFC Championship Game that season. He dealt with injuries in 2025, however, and the Commanders suffered mightily as a result. It wouldn't be surprising to see the former Heisman Trophy winner take home the CPOTY title, even over Mahomes.
When push comes to shove, however, if Mahomes puts together even just a decent season in his return from injury, he'll be the betting favorite to take home the Comeback Player of the Year award. He's just that good.
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