What is the price of a loss?
The Kansas City Chiefs fell to the Denver Broncos in excruciating fashion on Sunday, blowing a double-digit lead before coming up short at the goalline and losing 28-24 in a game that could cost the Chiefs big time.
It was a game Kansas City choked away, and the result stings for so many reasons. It hurts because the Chiefs lost a close game to a hated division rival, it hurts because they blew an 11-point fourth-quarter lead, and it hurts because they had four chances to score on goal-to-go to win the game and couldn’t.
But the most painful thing about the loss is still yet to come.
One loss could change everything for the Chiefs
Every win and every loss matters in the NFL. It’s usually one game that decides who gets the No. 1 seed and the bye, who wins the division, who plays whom in the playoffs, or who makes the playoffs at all.
If the Chiefs fall one game short somewhere, they’ll look back on this as the one that got away.
The difference between earning the No. 1 or the No. 2 seed could be Kansas City choosing to punt near midfield on fourth-and-inches early in the fourth quarter.
The difference between winning the division or finishing second could be having Harrison Butker attempt a 54-yard field goal to make a one-score game a one-score game instead of going for it on fourth down.
The difference between an easy or difficult matchup in the playoffs could be having first-and-goal from the four-yard line with two timeouts and not getting in the end zone.
The difference between making the playoffs or missing out entirely could be 105 yards of penalties, including one that wiped out the game-winning touchdown.
One game is often the difference between teams in the postseason seedings, and when we look back on the wins and losses and what could have been in January, this will be the game that stands out most as the one that got away. The one that was most controllable, that was the biggest should-have-won-but-didn’t.
The Chiefs had no business losing to Denver
Kansas City had no business losing this game. Patrick Mahomes was 80-2 in games where the Chiefs had a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter. Now, he’s 80-3.
The Chiefs had a 92.4 percent win probability early in the fourth quarter, according to ESPN Analytics. Even while trailing by four points late, KC’s win probability was still at 81 percent facing first-and-goal with under two minutes to go. The Chiefs lost anyway.
The AFC West race just got much harder
The ramifications could be huge. The Chiefs had a golden opportunity to take a stranglehold of the AFC West with a win, but instead, the defeat dropped them out of first place and behind the Broncos in the division for the first time this season, and they face an uphill battle to make up lost ground.
The Chiefs have three winnable games against the Atlanta Falcons, New York Jets, and Arizona Cardinals next, but the hardest part of their schedule is still to come. They still have to play the Buffalo Bills, LA Rams, Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots, and San Francisco 49ers after that.
For Denver, though, the road is easier. Kansas City will have to hope the Broncos slip up somewhere, and they will have to make up ground against a better opponent than they just lost to on Sunday. Instead of potentially wrapping up the division in early November, the AFC West is out of their hands.
We don’t know what this loss is going to cost the Chiefs yet—the bye, the division, a home playoff game, a playoff spot—but it will cost them something, and when it does, the way the Chiefs let this game slip will make it all the more painful.
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