Everybody exhale and say these six words together: The Kansas City Chiefs are 6-0. That was nice, wasn't it? After a smooth 28-18 victory over the 49ers in San Francisco on Sunday, the Chiefs stand as the NFL's only undefeated team after six weeks despite their growing list of injuries. While only time will tell if the Chiefs can win the war of attrition they're experiencing due to injuries, it's safe to say that the season could not have started better for Kansas City as far as the win-loss column is concerned.
Speaking of wins and losses, the Chiefs came into Sunday's matchup with the 49ers as 1.5-point underdogs. Most teams get the added juice of being road dogs multiple times per season, but it's a much less common occurrence for Kansas City in the Patrick Mahomes era. It happens a staggeringly low amount of the time - of Mahomes 102 career starts, the Chiefs have been underdogs just 14 times. For those of you who aren't great at doing math off the top of your head or those who have just temporarily misplaced their phones, that's only 13.7% of the time.
Needless to say, the Chiefs being betting underdogs is a pretty rare affair, but it does happen from time to time. There are things more rare in the sports world. In the modern era of the four major North American professional sports leagues for example there have only been 7 teams who have managed to 3-peat as champions in their respective leagues. While the Chiefs are working on making that 8, the odds of it occurring in general are pretty low, to say the least. There's also the rarest occurrence in all of sports, which would be the Raiders hitting on a number 1 pick.
But the odds of the Chiefs winning games where they find themselves as underdogs are on the opposite end of the probability spectrum. Mahomes and the Chiefs are 12-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in the 14 games where they have found themselves as underdogs and 11-3 straight up. That's a mind-blowing 92.3% success rate ATS and 78.6% success rate straight up. Here is some context to paint a picture of how impressive that is.
Steph Curry is considered almost unanimously the greatest shooter in the history of basketball. His career 3-point shooting percentage isn't quite tops in league history, but it is an impressive 42.6%. His free throw percentage, however, is the best in the history of the NBA. That percentage? 91%. So the probability of Steph Curry hitting a free throw is statistically less than the chances of Mahomes and the Chiefs covering a spread as an underdog.
Justin Tucker of the Baltimore Ravens is a historically accurate placekicker. When the Ravens'msssfsfssffs offense is unable to produce much, the joke for years has been "Just get it to the 50, and Tucker will take care of the rest". While he has been a touch suspect in the past couple of years at times, his career field goal percentage is 90.2%. Hall of fame worthy, but not as prodigious as Mahomes against the spread.
There's a 60.2% chance you have a job, a 65.6% chance you own a home, an 87% chance you graduated high school, and a 92% chance you own a car. None of these seemingly common occurrences happen at the same consistency as Mahomes and the Chiefs cover spreads when Vegas decides to put them in the dog house.
To call Patrick Mahomes a legend would be old hat, but stats like these continue to make his legend grow. While the Chiefs do have numerous question marks to address on their roster moving into Act II of the 2024 season, the ridiculousness of Mahomes winning prowess continues to impress.