Breaking down Xavier Worthy's rookie season for the Chiefs from all angles

The proclamations were immediate. NFL analysts, draft pundits, and Kansas City Chiefs fans offered up cheers of, "The Chiefs really got their next Tyreek Hill!" and asked "How could the Bills hand the fastest man in the NFL to the Chiefs?"

From the moment Xavier Worthy was drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs with the 28th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, expectations have been lofty. Worthy set the league on fire with his NFL Combine-record 40-yard dash and landing with the back-to-back Super Bowl champions did nothing but fan that flame.

Now, Worthy is over halfway through his rookie season and it feels like he's not made the impact Chiefs fans had hoped for. Let's dig into the numbers and the tape to see what we can expect from Xavier Worthy through the rest of the year.

Before we can dig deep into a review of Worthy's play, we need to revisit the term "expectations." Above we detailed why expectations might have been high for him. However, when you look at the player and the history of rookie receivers for Andy Reid, it should be no surprise that Worthy is where he is production-wise.

Consider the difference between the burdens placed upon Rashee Rice versus Worthy. Taken just 27 picks later in the draft, most viewed Rice as a developmental player and had very low expectations for him in his rookie year. Rice was able to exceed those projections and became a reliable option for a Super Bowl run.

Adjusting Expectations for Worthy

Another factor here is how Rice was able to find quick success in the Chiefs offense. He became a YAC weapon with designed touches in a short period and developed as an intermediate and short route runner, running mainly mesh and crossing schemes. Rice wasn't a well-developed route runner but he did certain things well that made the Chiefs limited offense more dangerous. Credit to him for developing quickly when the Chiefs needed him, but Worthy just can't do the same things physically.

While dynamic, we've seen what Worthy looks like when tackled by linebackers. His lack of size makes him an unreliable option for the same concepts that helped Rice develop quickly. }If Worthy can't be used in those ways, it really limits his path to production.

It's worth mentioning that we can never really measure the impact Worthy has on the rest of the offense by stretching the field. Trasvis Kelce has had a nice bounce-back season and is on pace to finish with 900+ yards despite being 35 years old.

Lastly, the injuries to Marquise Brown and Rashee Rice certainly have had an impact on Worthy's role. Looking back to Mecole Hardman's rookie season he was a much less developed receiver and was able to come in and have 538 yards and 6 touchdowns. Why? Having prime Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce coupled with Sammy Watkins and DeMarcus Robinson made things much easier on him. Worthy has been the 2nd most targeted player on the offense. Volume wasn't really his game in college.

Some Positive Signs from Worthy

One of the big selling points about Worthy (other than his speed) coming out of the draft was his breakout age. At 18 years old, he had 800 yards for one of the top programs in college football. Not only did that youth help his draft stock, but it also accounted for his ability to quickly learn and develop in Steve Sarkisian's offense at Texas.

Worthy has been on the field early and often and seems to be reading NFL defenses well. We've often seen Patrick Mahomes correcting players like Mecole Hardman, Skyy Moore, or Kadarius Toney when it comes to where to be. We've not seen that with Worthy. He seems to have mastered what's been asked of him.

Another positive might actually be the plays he hasn't made. Worthy and Mahomes are about 2 or 3 plays away from having another 100+ yards and a couple of touchdowns away from their stat line. It's easy to see these plays and view them as negatives but he's getting open downfield and Mahomes has missed a wide-open Worthy on more than one occasion. If they can get on the same page down the field, there's lots of untapped production.

Lastly, durability was a concern for Worthy coming into the NFL because of his size, but he's managed to play every game. We've seen him take some big hits but he gets back up. The NFL season is a grind, no doubt, and after missing all of rookie mini-camp with a hamstring injury, there was some concern about his body being able to hold up. So far it has.

Some Negative Numbers from Worthy

There are lots of advanced numbers that don't like what Worthy has done this season. Worthy is PFF's 98th overall graded receiver, and his 0.89 yards/route stands among the worst of qualifying receivers—and ranks 13th out of 16 qualifying rookies. His -3.8 EPA/reception ranks 53rd amongst all qualified pass catchers. Expected Points Added (EPA) quantifies the net value a receiver adds on targets by translating yards gained into points scored via NFL+.

Even stretching the field has been somewhat limiting according to the stats. Worthy ranks 36th in the NFL in air yards per target. This means even the passes he's not catching aren't exactly stretching opposing defenses as much as they could.

Beyond the numbers, the film pretty much shows exactly what he was as a draft prospect. Game-changing speed mixed with roles limited by size. The biggest area of improvement for Worthy has to be playing through contact. Worthy is getting consistently redirected or even knocked off his route by minimal contact. The plan was never for Worthy to line up and face press coverage from a big corner like Patrick Surtain, but even with all the free releases he gets via Andy Reid's scheme, he still is getting taken off his spot.

A Half-Season Consensus about Worthy

We've reviewed a long list of reasons why Xavier Worthy might have fallen short of expectations or perhaps the hopes for him were too high. Regardless, there are still bright spots from him that made him a first-round pick as well as the limitations present that had some doubters much lower on him as a prospect. His season is ultimately going to be defined by the ability (or inability) of Worthy and Mahomes to get on the same page downfield. Because of his limitations in the middle of the field as a YAC weapon and in contested catches, there are limited routes to productivity.

Worthy is barely old enough to buy a beer, so there's lots left on the table and next year will be big for his development. He needs to spend time with Marquise Brown to see where and how he wins in the intermediate part of the field and as a route runner. There's still plenty of potential left, but he's got an uphill climb to be a breakout player for 2024.