The date was October 17, 2019. The 4-2 Chiefs were facing the 2-4 Broncos in the exact same stadium where they blew an eleven-point fourth-quarter lead on Sunday. It was the Thursday Night Football matchup to kick off Week 7, with the Chiefs looking to bounce back following consecutive home losses to the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans. With exactly ten minutes remaining in the second quarter and the Chiefs leading 10-6, Patrick Mahomes lunged forward for a two-yard gain on a quarterback sneak to extend the drive.
On the play, Mahomes suffered a dislocated kneecap, which caused him to leave Mile High Field with the assistance of team trainers. The initial fear was that the Chiefs' 24-year-old reigning MVP quarterback would be lost for the season, and everyone in Chiefs Kingdom held their breath on that Thursday night. Obviously, that was not the case, as Mahomes only missed two full games, and the Chiefs went on to win the first of their three Super Bowls in this era. Unfortunately, this one play would forever change the manner in which the Chiefs approach short-yardage situations, and it played a role in their crushing loss on Sunday.
Andy Reid's refusal to run QB sneaks continues to haunt the Chiefs
The quarterback sneak is the most automatic play in football. According to data from Warren Sharp of Sharp Analytics, short-yardage quarterback sneaks have a league-average conversion rate of 84%. So, roughly eight out of every ten quarterback sneak attempts will be successful. On third and fourth downs in which the line to gain is one to two yards away, most teams have their quarterback line up under center and plunge forward for a first down or, in some cases, a touchdown.
The reason why I say most and not all teams is because Andy Reid and the Chiefs apparently haven't gotten the memo that these plays are almost guaranteed to move the chains or score at the goal line. Reid's aversion to calling quarterback sneaks can be traced back to that fateful night in Denver, where Mahomes suffered a fluke injury that only caused him to miss two games in a season where the Chiefs went on to win the Super Bowl anyway.
Over the years, think about all of the nonsensical plays the Chiefs have run in short-yardage situations on possession downs. Whether it was the Blake Bell debacle in the 2023 season kickoff game against the Lions, the painful-to-watch runs out of the shotgun, or even the occasional rollout pass, Reid and the Chiefs' offensive coaching staff have needlessly made these situations more difficult.
The Chiefs have plenty of options beyond Patrick Mahomes
The most egregious aspect of all of this is that the QUARTERBACK DOESN'T HAVE TO BE THE ONE WHO SNEAKS THE BALL. While signal callers such as Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and even Tom Brady mastered the art of picking up short yardage, plenty of teams have bigger skill position players, most commonly tight ends, take the snap and plunge forward for the necessary yardage. An example of this is the Steelers, as they use tight end Pat Freiermuth as the quarterback sneak artist as opposed to Aaron Rodgers. The Seattle Seahawks also have their tight end AJ Barner execute short-yardage situations in a play they have titled "The Barnyard," while Sam Darnold watches from behind.
If Reid is so disturbed by the potential of Mahomes getting injured on a quarterback sneak again, he can easily have someone else take the snap. He could use Justin Fields, as the Chiefs' backup quarterback stands at 6'3", 227 pounds and is one of the league's most gifted athletes at the position. He could use Noah Gray in the event he doesn't want to risk Travis Kelce on this play. Heck, he could even use the likes of Hunter Nourzad or Khyris Tonga, as those players have seen the field when the Chiefs have faced a short-yardage situation on possession downs. The continued refusal to run the most commonly converted play in the NFL is borderline coaching malpractice and played a role in costing the Chiefs not only Sunday's game but potentially the AFC West.
The Chiefs' final drive against Denver exposed the problem again
On their game-winning drive attempt, the Chiefs got all the way to the Broncos' one-yard line, needing a touchdown to win the game and leave Denver with a 6-1 record. Despite every issue the Chiefs had in this game, ranging from Harrison Butker missing yet another field goal to the inability to get pressure on Bo Nix, they were one yard away from earning a massive divisional victory in one of the league's most hostile environments. On second down, instead of sneaking the ball across the goal line, Reid called "Tom and Jerry," which was intended to go to Xavier Worthy. On this play, Mahomes lined up in the shotgun, and both Andrew Armstrong and Jalen Royals were on the field. What did I say about giving those two players meaningful snaps? Unsurprisingly, the Broncos were not fooled, and the play was unsuccessful.
On third down, Reid called a run to Kenneth Walker III that got stuffed. The process of that play call was not an issue, as handing the ball to an Offensive Player of the Year candidate with a yard to gain is difficult to argue. However, as great as Walker is, running a sneak likely would have been a better option on that play. Scoring touchdowns from the goal line on standard handoffs is more difficult than it may appear on TV. The process of Mahomes taking the snap and turning to hand the ball off to Walker allows the defensive line more time to penetrate and disrupt the play. If the Chiefs were to simply lunge forward on a quarterback sneak as opposed to running a long-developing handoff, their likelihood of converting with a yard to gain would increase.
Due to a Jaylon Moore false start, the Chiefs were forced to run their fourth-down play from the six-yard line, which presented an obvious passing situation. Had Moore not flinched pre-snap, there would be far less unrest in Chiefs Kingdom, as Rashee Rice caught Mahomes' fourth-down pass in the end zone for what would've been the game-winning touchdown. The story would not be how the Chiefs' failure to execute situational football cost them the game, but rather how they overcame adversity and found a way to defeat their biggest rivals on the road. Alas, here we are, and they are now in an arms race to win the AFC West.
One thing is for certain: there is no need for the Chiefs' coaching staff to overthink obvious situations and make things more difficult than necessary. For Pete's sake, next time they have third or fourth down and a yard to gain, sneak the ball forward and move the chains.
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