NFL training camps are now only a few weeks away. That is great news for diehard fans who have been hungry for NFL content during the long dead zone of the NFL calendar. That long waiting period always leads to NFL media churning out "hot takes" about which teams are going to unseat the Kansas City Chiefs' dominance in the AFC.
It seems like at least 50% of NFL talking heads want to get an anti-Chiefs pick on the record so that if this is the year that they don't come through, they can take credit for "calling it". At this point, Chiefs fans could write these takes themselves. Do any of these sound familiar?
"This is the year the Chargers take down the Chiefs in the AFC West."
"This is the year Lamar Jackson finally gets past Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs."
"This is the year that Josh Allen finally beats Mahomes and makes the Super Bowl."
I just made those all up, but I still put them in quotation marks because I'm 100% confident that someone has said them in the past couple of weeks. Picking someone else to come out of the AFC has become an offseason tradition at this point. Analysts aren't sold on the Chiefs winning 15 games again. So I thought instead of looking at these "bold" predictions, it might be better actually to try and do a fair AFC Power Rankings.
I've ranked all 16 AFC teams and put them into four different tiers. Let's kick things off with the best of the best.
AFC Power Rankings Tier 1 - The Super Bowl or Bust
1. Kansas City Chiefs - You will see countless power rankings or Vegas odds that have the Ravens and Bills ahead of the Chiefs. I don't see how you can pick against the team that had the best record in the AFC last season, made the Super Bowl, and has beaten the other two AFC powerhouse teams in the playoffs every time they've faced off.
2. (tie) Baltimore Ravens - I know this is a cop-out, but I have the Ravens and Bills as dead even behind the Chiefs. They both have good overall teams with athletic freak quarterbacks that have never won the big game. They are both behind Kansas City, but belong in the top tier and ahead of the other AFC teams.
2. (tie) Buffalo Bills - (See Baltimore description above)
AFC Power Rankings:Tier 2 - Playoff Caliber
4. Los Angeles Chargers - Putting the Chargers this high may seem like buying into their annual offseason hype, but there is legit justification. They had the fourth-best record in the AFC last season. They were in the top five in the AFC last year in scoring offense and defense. They have a proven head coach and a talented quarterback. They just have to live up to the hype.
5. Cincinnati Bengals - Some people will have the Bengals higher because of Joe Burrow/Ja'marr Chase and them making the Super Bowl several years ago. However, let's remember that they missed the playoffs last year and didn't do anything to fix their struggling defense. This is a high upside/low floor team.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers - I'm on record as thinking that Aaron Rodgers could be a disaster in Pittsburgh, but this is a team that has had a winning record and made the playoffs with much worse quarterbacks than Rodgers. If he stays on the field and runs Arthur Smith's system, they should make the playoffs.
7. Denver Broncos - This team will over- or underperform this spot depending on Bo Nix's sophomore season. If he proves last season wasn't a fluke and plays well, they'll be a playoff team. If he suffers a sophomore slump, they will likely underperform and open the door for a team in the tier below to squeeze into the playoffs.
8. Houston Texans - On paper, the Texans should be a sure playoff team that can make some serious noise if C.J. Stroud has a big year. They just seemed kind of off last season after their unexpected success in Stroud's rookie year. Like the Bengals, this is a team with a high ceiling, but they still have some questions.
AFC Power Rankings Tier 3 - Playoff Longshots
9. Miami Dolphins - It feels like the Dolphins have dropped a tier from where people saw them last season, and the window for this version of the Dolphins could be closing. If they're healthy, they won't be bad, but it's hard to see any strong justifications for why they will be much better than the 8-9 team from last season.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars - The Jaguars are kind of like a knock-off brand version of the Chargers. They have a quarterback that people still think is talented, but they haven't achieved really anything yet. The difference is that the Chargers were 11-6 last year and the Jaguars were 4-13. I think there is a chance that Liam Coen can get real results out of the trio of Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas Jr., and Travis Hunter.
11. New England Patriots - The Patriots were bad last season, and they still haven't gotten enough weapons for Drake Maye. However, I liked what I saw from Maye in a bad situation last year, and the upgrade to Mike Vrabel at head coach is huge. Vrabel always had competitive teams in Tennessee.
12. Las Vegas Raiders - I don't think the Raiders will be good this season because they don't have enough talent on defense or at wide receiver. However, adding Pete Carroll, Geno Smith, and Ashton Jeanty will be huge for making this team harder to beat. Expect a lot of close, ugly, slugfests from the Raiders this season.
13. Indianapolis Colts - The Colts were mediocre last season despite their issues at quarterback; there just ins't much room to see improvement this season. Their only hope is that Anthony Richardson takes a massive step forward. If that happens, they could make the playoffs, but that is a huge "if".
AFC Power Rankings Tier 4 - Not Good
14. New York Jets - Getting away from the Aaron Rodgers drama and adding Aaron Glenn at head coach should stabilize this team, but the Jets don't have enough talent yet. Justin Fields is a stopgap at quarterback, and the defense has plenty of questions as well.
15. Tennessee Titans - The Titans were 3-14 last season, gave up the most points in the AFC, and will now be starting a pretty raw rookie quarterback. Even if Cam Ward is the real deal, this rebuild is going to take some time.
16. Cleveland Browns - The Browns scored the fewest points in the AFC last season, gave up the third-most points, and now will likely have a Kenny Pickett/Joe Flacco/Shedeur Sanders/Dillon Gabriel quarterback battle in camp. Sorry, Cleveland.
You can also check out my NFL Quarterback Power Rankings.