This Sunday, NFL fans get another chapter in the increasingly epic rivalry in the series between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. We all know the script: Bills win in the regular season and, like Lucy and the football, the Chiefs pull the rug out from under the Bills' feet in the playoffs.
Naturally, when two teams face off again in the postseason, the first game gets revisited. While the initial Chiefs vs. Bills game was just nine weeks ago, lots has changed for both teams. Let's dig into some factors that could make the matchup in Arrowhead very different than November's game.
1. Matt Milano is back
Usually, one player doesn't move the needle that much in a matchup between two teams, but Matt Milano is an All-Pro linebacker who lifts the entire Bills defense.
Since the exit of veteran leaders of the Bills' defense such as Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Tre'Davious White, and Tremaine Edmunds more has been put on the plate of Milano. With a player like Travis Kelce winning over the middle of the field, Milano will be a big part of the Bills' game plan to stop the Chiefs.
Milano being back also helps Terrel Bernard who is a decent linebacker as well, which gives the Bills a much more effective combination. In Week 11, the Chiefs had a 52.1% success rate rushing the ball (one of their highest totals of the year). Improved linebacker play will make the ground game tougher.
2. Chiefs Left Tackle Play
The Chiefs have switched their left tackle twice since Wanya Morris lined up against the Bills in November. The Chiefs replaced Wanya Morris with D.J. Humphries and then replaced an injured Humphries with Joe Thuney. Despite some of his season-long struggles, Wanya Morris actually played well in Buffalo. Credited with two pressures allowed and a 72.9 pass-blocking grade per PFF, Morris had a strong performance against the Bills.
Morris went from starting left tackle in Week 11 to a healthy scratch against the Houston Texans in the divisional round. Operating on the premise that Joe Thuney is an upgrade at left tackle this could be a good thing for the Chiefs passing game. Patrick Mahomes was pressured 13 times in Week 11 against the Bills defense.
3. Chiefs' Turnover-(less) Streak
Coming into the Bills game, the Chiefs had constant turnover problems including a string of Patrick Mahomes' interceptions. The Chiefs quarterback threw a costly INT on the Chiefs' opening possession that directly translated to a Bills' touchdown. At the end of the game while down nine points, Patrick Mahomes threw a prayer up that was intercepted as well.
That was the last time Mahomes would throw a pick on the season—a streak he's carried into the AFC Championship game. That was also the final turnover for the Chiefs this season as a whole; the Chiefs haven't had a giveaway since.
The Bills are on quite a turnover streak themselves by only turning the ball over once since their game against the Chiefs.
The Bills have turned the ball over ONCE in their last 8 games.
— Price Carter (@priceacarter) January 20, 2025
The Chiefs have not had a SINGLE turnover in their last 8 games.
The team that turns the ball over is probably not going to the Super Bowl.
4. Bills' Key Injuries
The Bills were without some of their biggest players on offense against the Chiefs in Week 11. Rookie receiver Keon Coleman and tight end Dalton Kincaid both were missing from the Bills passing game. Even more notable was the injury to starting right tackle Spencer Brown, who has developed into one of the best right tackles in the game. The Bills' passing game this year has relied on two things: a dominant offensive line and a variety of weapons that can win in a variety of ways. Playing without Coleman, Kincaid, and Brown was a huge factor for the Bills in Week 11,
5. Chiefs' Run Game
Coming into the Bills game, the Chiefs had turned into a run-heavy offense, partly because of the injuries to Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown, and JuJu Smith-Schuster and partly to rely on the strength of their offensive line. Kareem Hunt had emerged as the workhorse back for the Chiefs offense and it was working well.
As the Chiefs' offensive line woes continued, particularly at left tackle, the run game suffered as did Hunt's efficiency. While his effort was certainly appreciated, he went from the couch to taking 200 carries for a Super Bowl contender. The Chiefs run game hasn't been the same late in the season and this could be a huge factor against a Bills defense that ranks 4th in EPA/rush despite playing the most light boxes of any team in the league.
Chiefs Run game Weeks 1-11 (Bills game)
— Price Carter (@priceacarter) January 20, 2025
EPA/Rush: +.20
Success rate: 41%
Chiefs Run game Weeks 12-Divisonal:
EPA/Rush: -0.81
Success rate: 35.1%
Chiefs run game hasn't been as effective as it was early in the year #ChiefsKingdom
6. Chiefs' have injuries too
The Chiefs were without a number of key players in Week 11 as well including Isiah Pacheco, Hollywood Brown, Jaylen Watson, Charles Omenihu, and Harrison Butker. These injuries played a huge role in the team's ability to have both offensive and defensive success. Omenihu is a total game-changer for the Chiefs' pass rush and Jaylen Watson is a significant upgrade for the coverage unit as well. Hollywood Brown has played a nice role in the Chiefs offense up until the divisional round where he was held to zero catches by a tough Texans' secondary. Hopefully, his addition will be felt this Sunday.
7. Bills' defensive regression
The Bills' defense came into the Week 11 game as one of the better defenses in the league. They were generating pressure even without Von Miller and the coverage unit was holding up well even without Milano. After the Chiefs' game, the Bills' defense started to get exposed and even gave up 84 points in two weeks against the Rams and the Lions.
Part of the reason for the regression was that their schedule had them playing in the weaker AFC East and some other easier teams like the Titans, Jaguars, and Colts. Another reason was their coverage unit which has taken a step back towards the back half of the year partly due to injury.
Bill Defense EPA/play:
— Price Carter (@priceacarter) January 20, 2025
Weeks 1-8: -0.14
Weeks 8- 18: -0.08
8. Missed tackles for the Chiefs
Whether is was personnel-related or maybe the Chiefs just had a bad day, the game in November was littered with missed tackles. The Chiefs had a season-high 13 missed tackles against the Bills. Not only will adding players like Charles Omenihu and Jaylen Watson help, but also increased playing time for Jaden Hicks—a very strong tackler—should help this as well.
Reviewing the All-22 from Chiefs/Bills in November. The biggest thing that jumped out to me? THIRTEEN MISSED TACKLES by the Chiefs defense.
— Price Carter (@priceacarter) January 22, 2025
The most they had the entire season defensively. Chiefs have to improve there to win on Sunday #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/Y63NqgZXDq
Even though these teams met just three months ago, so much has changed about their identities and their play. It's pretty tough to take away any concrete observations from that game to the AFC Championship game. One thing is certain though: this game will be tight and won by the team that makes the least mistakes.