Will Chiefs bring back JuJu Smith-Schuster?

The Kansas City Chiefs face an interesting series of choices when it comes to the wide receiver room.

Nothing is guaranteed in life, they say, but it feels like that’s especially true within the realm of the National Football League. In a sport where the average career span is only three seasons and the letters of the NFL are often referenced as “Not For Long,” making any sort of “extra” risk feel like a fool’s errand.

That makes JuJu Smith-Schuster a very, very lucky man.

That’s not to take anything away from the considerable talents of Smith-Schuster at all. He is by all accounts an excellent wide receiver known for his hands, his route-running, his physical playing style, and his intelligence. It’s just that it was only a year ago that he decided to roll the dice in a way that many formerly injured players decide to do and took a major risk—and it actually paid off.

Smith-Schuster’s prove-it deal

Last spring, Smith-Schuster signed an incentive-laden single-season deal with the Chiefs—what is often referred to as a “prove-it deal“—in the hopes that a healthy season would bring him finer offers the following year. Don’t forget that he was coming off of a final season with the Pittsburgh Steelers in which he only appeared in five games due to injury.  And what happened is exactly what he hoped would happen—an extremely rare occurrence in the NFL.

These days, Smith-Schuster is sitting in a much better position heading into free agency. He’s wearing a Super Bowl ring after a magical season catching passes from Patrick Mahomes. Smith-Schuster immediately became ingrained as a team favorite, and Andy Reid has nothing but praise for JSS as a person and player. While he dealt with short-term injuries, especially later in the year, Smith-Schuster showed himself to be a reliable weapon who can make the contested catch and carry an offense when required.

After signing a one-year deal with only $3.76 million guaranteed, Spotrac is now calculating Smith-Schuster’s market rate at a four-year deal worth just under $15M annually. That’s a huge leap in cost and it’s possible Smith-Schuster receives more than that if the right team falls in love, especially given the market hikes at the position in the last 12 months.

How should the Chiefs approach Smith-Schuster?

At this stage, the Chiefs have myriad decisions to make about departing players, from Justin Watson to Smith-Schuster to Mecole Hardman. Right now the Chiefs have Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, and Kadarius Toney as locks to return. Smith-Schuster would once again fit in very well beside those teammates but do the Chiefs want to commit this much in resources once again?

It will be interesting to see how the market might play out, but JSS is an ideal tandem partner with Travis Kelce at tight end. Smith-Schuster is also incredibly well-liked by his coaches and players, and he seems to feel the same about the Chiefs. Few players make themselves at home as quickly as Smith-Schuster did with the Chiefs in ’22 and those good vibes generally indicate a longer relationship down the road.

It’s also important to note that bringing back Smith-Schuster even on a deal at Spotrac’s market value is slightly less than half of the top of the market. Tyreek Hill, former Chiefs receiver, is getting double that amount to be the Dolphins’ top option. With Smith-Schuster, the Chiefs get a nice upper-tier option of their own but for 50 percent of the going rate.

Of course, no one would mistake Smith-Schuster for Hill, and therein lies the rub. Would the Chiefs rather make a splashy investment for someone with a proven higher ceiling? Don’t forget that Keenan Allen or DeAndre Hopkins are already names that are reportedly available and the offseason hasn’t really started yet.

Free agency prediction

When the good times are rolling, it typically means that both sides can appreciate the perspective of each other. JuJu Smith-Schuster seems like the kind of player who might be willing to shave a bit from market expectations if it means the Chiefs will play friendly now and later. Maybe that means the Chiefs give him a long-term starring role with an offer of three to four years of security with an annual contender. In exchange, he would likely give them a slight discount to dance with the ones who brought him. It feels reasonable to say Smith-Schuster will be back in 2023 and likely beyond for the next few years to come.