After crunching the numbers, AA co-founder Adam Best feels confident. Here are 16 reasons why the Eagles are going down…
The big game is finally ACTUALLY here after two weeks that felt like two years. This Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl is for all the marbles, not to mention the right for the Chiefs to claim they are a budding dynasty. It’s bizarre that the Chiefs are underdogs, but like the pro gambler who was the basis of the movie Two For the Money says, (paraphrasing here) “public money is stupid — you should bet the opposite.” Still nervous? No worries.
16. The main reason is obvious: Patrick Fucking Mahomes. Excuse my French, but the emphasis there was essential. In 2022, he was better than Jalen Hurts in nearly every statistical category, including scrambling. Hurts beats him on designed runs and fewer interceptions, but the latter is because Hurts doesn’t throw as much or attempt anywhere near the degree of difficulty. He also missed games. Not only is Mahomes the superior player, but he’s also the more battle-tested one. Mahomes has played in five Conference Championships and two Super Bowls. Hurts has never even been in a close playoff game. If the game is close during crunch time, Mahomes has a decisive edge. Hurts is more likely to pucker up and choke as the pressure cooker turns up.
15. The Eagles run into the same issue the Bills did – they are too predictable. They have one of these solid all-around rosters with no holes (albeit fewer true super-duper stars). As a result, they line up, do what they do and expect to crush you without many tweaks. That works wonders against most of the league, ya know, tomato cans. But not when you run into a buzzsaw like the Bengals or the Chiefs. Defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon is not very adaptable. He plays a ton of zone and doesn’t like to blitz his back seven (22nd in extra rushers sent). Any failure to adjust relatively quickly in this game could be curtains, and sometimes he’s slow to recalibrate. Offensively, the Eagles also get predictable. Philly is in shotgun formation 90% of the time. They used the second least presnap motion. Relying solely on the Jimmies and Joes and not the Xs and Os could be a disaster against the Chiefs, who are creative, aggressive, and game-planny.
14. Travis Kelce cannot be denied. Doubling him doesn’t work, and no single player can cover him. As both Derwin James and Jalen Ramsey found out when 87 put them on a poster. Why? For starters, Kelce leads the NFL in motion: yards, routes, targets, and receptions. They get him moving, so the coverage has to change in real time. He also has the knowledge, freedom, and mind-meld with Mahomes to audible on the fly. The last time Travis played in the Super Bowl, Gronk got all the glory. Kelce is the kind of guy who obsesses over stuff like that. He will want to put on a show, cement his legacy and prove that he is the GOAT tight end.
13. Speaking of tight ends, the Chiefs will lean into using three at a time – 13 personnel – to try to put Philly in between a rock and a hard place. 13 is the Chiefs’ best passing formation according to dropback EPA. Mahomes is at 0.83 out of this look, which is kinda sorta maybe good when he led the league with 0.28 overall. Going TE-heavy will force the Eagles to make a choice. Choice A: Shift to five men upfront and let Patrick turn your coverage into the Fourth of July sky because it has only six defenders. Choice B: Stick with a light box out of fear of the MVP and take your chances against the run. Obviously, we know what Mahomes can do out of this formation (or any look), but Isiah Pacheco is the top RB in rushing yards over expected against light boxes. Unless the Eagles come up with a genius solution that is a departure for them or they play out of their freakin’ minds, 13 personnel will give them fits. It’s not really even about Noah Gray, Jody Fortson, or Blake Bell either. It’s about dictating matchups. Since Week 11, the Eagles are 15th in rush D success rate when facing personnel packages with multiple tight ends. That’s a significant drop from their usual dominant D. The league has crowdsourced and figured something out about this defense and its tendencies; it only needs to be exploited.
12. Philly also struggles against the exact opposite formation — empty sets. KC excels in empty looks as well, and they’ve gone to them fairly often. Considering the versatile collection of skill players the Chiefs have assembled on offense, you could see them going to empty sets and still staying multiple, unpredictable. RB Jerick McKinnon, for example, is still dangerous when you split him out. Meanwhile, Kadarius Toney is extremely effective on sweeps. They could easily audible to this. Andy Reid is a chameleon coach who has a weekly metamorphosis, so expect him to lean into packages the Eagles struggle with. He’s more adaptable than they are. That factor could honestly decide the game.
11. The Eagles haven’t faced an elite quarterback all year. No Mahomes. No Joe Burrow or Josh Allen. Not even Justin Herbert or Lamar Jackson. Of course, they couldn’t play Jalen Hurts either, who could be elite (need to see more than one year). Early in the season, they did play Kyler Murray and Trevor Lawrence, but the former was in a slump this year, and the latter played them in a monsoon. They also played Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers, who scored 40 and 33 points respectively. Here are the other signal callers the Birds faced: Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Carson Wentz, Lawrence, Murray, Cooper Rush, Kenny Pickett, Davis Mills, Taylor Heinicke, Matt Ryan, Rodgers/Jordan Love, Daniel Jones, Justin Fields, Prescott, Andy Dalton, Davis Webb, Daniel Jones again, Brock Purdy/Josh Johnson. Have no clue how they expect to be ready for the MVP because he’s a steep step up in competition. Sorry, but backups Gardner Minshew and Ian Book emulating Mahomes in practice is not an accurate simulation.
10. Hurts struggles against the blitz. He’s top five in EPA/play when you don’t blitz him and bottom 10 when you do. He’s specifically bad against zone blitzes. Pair this with his injured shoulder and lost touch and Steve Spagnuolo has all the motivation in the world to get funky as hell with the exotic blitzes. Hurts is 4 out of 13 on deep balls (passes of 20-plus air yards) post-injury – with six overthrows and one underthrow. He’s missed AJ Brown on two would-be touchdown strikes in the playoffs. His adjusted completion percentage is also down 13.4%. Something is rotten in Denmark. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni is smart to keep things simple for Hurts and try to use his skill set and RPOs to confuse defenses. But in this particular contest, it will likely be Spags who does the confusing. Remember, Spags knows that No. 15 has his back. It’s OK to get burned a few times when the Mahomes/Kelce offense can put up 30. He also knows his corners have been lights out against outside throws since the second half of the season started. Those are Hurts’ favorite kind of pass. He’s not nearly as fond of the middle of the field. Almost forgot maybe the most important part: the Eagles stink on third and long. Why? Because you take the RPO away from them and they lose their mojo, that’s why. So not only will Spags want to blitz them on third and long, he’ll want to blitz to put them in a third-and-long hole. And if the Birds fall behind by a sizable margin and become one-dimensional (which is not how they are built), it’s a wrap.
9. The Chiefs’ defense is EXTREMELY underrated. Since the Week 8 bye, the Chiefs are 11th in defensive EPA and 5th in success rate. They’ve been solid against the run and explosive plays. Part of that is because they are much faster than last year, plus more willing and able to tackle. They are getting after passers, too – fifth in sack rate and fourth in pressure rate. Defensive backs coach Dave Merritt has done a ludicrous job turning four rookies into solid starters (Bryan Cook is the dime back) and deserves a ton of credit. The Chiefs are 31st in cap spending on secondary players, but hold up back there. Which is sort of the special sauce that allows them to spend 31% of the cap on Mahomes and Chris Jones alone. Defensive line coach Joe Cullen also deserves some props for elevating Jones into the DPoY convo, while resuscitating the corpse of Frank Clark, and bringing George Karlaftis up to speed. Mike Danna has also been an overachiever on his watch. Love Danna. He plays every snap like it might be his last. Mostly, we’ve seen that Playoff Spags is a thing. His defenses always improve after the break and peak in the postseason.
8. The Chiefs can negate the Eagles’ dominant pass rush. “What!? How!?” Can hear you shouting this at the screen. First off, the Chiefs have two top-eight PFF-graded pass blockers for the postseason in Creed Humphrey and Joe Thuney. Add in Trey Smith, and that’s as solid as it gets on the interior. Orlando Brown has been decent enough to **probably** hold up against Josh Sweat. Then you have Mahomes, who had the lowest pressure-to-sack rate this season at 10.5%. That means you only sack him one out of every 10 pressures. I’m no gambling man, but even I can tell you those are dogshit odds. If his ankle is even 80%, the Mean Green will struggle to bring him down. The biggest remaining issue is pass-rushing edge Haason Reddick. Andy Reid and Co. will have a plan for him. Think back to the Week 7 masterclass he put on against Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa. Jet sweeps in his face, leaving him unblocked strategically, letting him overpursue, throwing tight ends at him, chipping, etc.; it was a cornucopia of crap they hit homeboy with. If they can neutralize Bosa by confusing and bludgeoning him, they can do the same to Reddick. He’s a great player but not on Bosa’s level. He benefits more from the system.
7. The Chiefs have the right kind of bodies to throw at this Philadelphia rushing attack. Derrick Nnadi is the space-eating legion upfront. Nick Bolton and Willie Gay flying around, not to mention rookie Leo Chenal as a Ben Niemann upgrade. Their corners can really tackle. Hell, L’Jarius Sneed knocked himself out bringing the wood early in the Bengals game, while Trent McDuffie somehow immediately brought Ja’Marr Chase down on a screen. Most importantly, Justin Reid and Bryan Cook are massive speed/tackling upgrades over last year’s versions of Tyrann Mathieu and Daniel Sorensen. The Honey Badger wasn’t very Honey Badger-like, as he shied away from contact and wouldn’t stick his nose in anywhere. Sorensen, meanwhile, was a liability all year long. The signing of Reid in particular has paid dividends, as he’s improved as the season progresses. That is to be expected coming to a new team from a losing culture. Anyways, all these guys need to fly to the ball with reckless abandon and wrap up Hurts. Less worried about the running backs
6. Chris Jones. Folks from the City of Brotherly Love (to quote The Big Lebowski, “I haven’t found it to be exactly that”) believe their O-line is better than Chris Jones. They are very likely in for a rude awakening Sunday night. Just because you handled Nick Bosa in a game where you barely had to pass, does not mean you will shut down the CEO of Sack Nation. Business is always booming for Jones. KC will find ways to get him one-on-one matchups, whether it is kicking him outside, or leaving center Jason Kelce uncovered and walking up Bolton to blitz. The guards are where I think Jones can prevail most. Landon Dickerson leads the league in holding calls, and refs know how often Jones gets held out of necessity. Isaac Seumalo is the least-talented player in this unit. His PFF grade for the playoffs (67.6) reflects that. He’s not a bad player per se, but one-on-one against Stone Cold would be a mismatch. Spags sending exotic blitzes and Jones having permission to shift around at the last second will also help set him up for success. Remember that Jones periodically gets breathers, but the Philly O-linemen will not. This could create a scenario where they are gassed in the fourth quarter, and Jones once again plays Mariano Rivera. Big No. 95 definitely has some Sandman in him. Some Derrick Thomas in him. He has more fourth-quarter overtime sacks and pressures than in player in the league. Lastly, it’s worth noting that while the Eagles D is technically better, Jones is once again the top defensive player in this game. In the playoffs, honestly. His 16 pressures and five QB hits lead the playoffs despite him only playing two games (some teams played three) and seeing a smorgasbord of double-teams. He also has PFF’s top run-stopping grade (84.9) of the postseason among all defensive linemen. He’s morphed into prime Aaron Donald. That’s not hyperbole. That’s the level of his current domination.
5. Now that Harrison Butker is back to being his old clutch self, and Dave Toub’s punt returners have ceased with the muffing, the special teams unit that plagued the Chiefs could be a strength. Punter Tommy Townsend is that dude too. Confidence is off the charts. Expect him to drop a coffin corner punt or two. The Chiefs SHOULD have the edge here, but because of some mishaps, it’s being ignored. Knock on wood.
4. The Chiefs will effectively double alpha dog AJ Brown as they did Ja’Marr Chase, and bully svelte Devonta Smith with stifling press coverage. Smith is a stud, but his BMI makes you worry he might literally snap in half like a Slim Jim. Even Mecole Hardman thinks he needs to pack on some pounds. I’d be much more worried about Brown in a game of this nature. Brown is consistently one of the top players in yards per route run. He’s literally the best player in the league in YPRR against press, so you probably want to sit back and double him. All that being said, the Chiefs should make the Eagles bet on the long ball as they did with the Bengals. They’ll take some lumps (see Tee Higgins mossing Jaylen Watson) but will come ahead in the aggregate by creating turnovers, sacks, and three-and-outs. This strategy is especially viable if Hurts’ shoulder is an issue. Overall, if the Chiefs corners handled a better duo in Chase and Higgens WITHOUT Swiss army knife L’Jarius Sneed, they can handle a slightly worse duo with Sneed back in action.
3. It will have been 22 days since the high-ankle sprain for Mahomes. Let’s take a time machine and travel back to three weeks after his 2019 high ankle sprain… *enter sound effects here* … Against the Lions in Week 4 of that year, Mahomes scrambled for 54 yards and a tuddie. Go back and watch him. I did. He doesn’t really look limited at all. You might not even be able to spot the ailment. Human bodies are all different. They are built differently, train differently, and respond differently. There probably hasn’t been an NFL injury that’s received this intensive of a rehab effort since Terrell Owens broke his leg. And recovery almost 20 years later is a different beast. Especially for someone who played three weeks after dislocating his knee. Mahomes’ mobility and recovery ability make him a mix of Gumby and Wolverine. I honestly believe viewers will be shocked when they see how mobile Headband Houdini is three weeks later. We have evidence to point towards that being the case. If he could scramble to win the game two weeks ago, he’ll be even better now. ESPN’s Bill Barnwell had my favorite point of the media cycle: The Eagles are 30th in QBR when quarterbacks hold onto the ball for more than four seconds, and Mahomes has 200 more yards than anybody else on such plays. If the ankle is good, and the Chiefs don’t get wiped out in the turnover battle, it’s hard to see the MVP taking an L.
2. Reid has been in a shitload of huge games. He knows the pressure. He’s smelt sweet success and tasted bitter defeat. There is zero chance of him being shell-shocked. Maybe he won’t be perfect with in-game decisions and whatnot, but his game plan will be solid, and his team/staff will stay together and poised. He’s 28-4 off a bye in his career. Additionally, the tragedy was more important than the game, but we sort of have to give him a bit of a mulligan after what his son did days before his last Super Bowl appearance. Impossible to have a clear head given those circumstances. It isn’t an excuse; it’s a valid reason. On the other hand, Nick Sirianni has never managed a playoff war. His teams have either blown opponents out or been blown out by opponents. There’s a better-than-good chance all this will matter at the end of 60 minutes of football, a zillion commercials, and one overlong halftime show that makes returning to the game awkward. Have confidence that Reid will outduel the talented Todd Haley-tree product (what a weird thing to write!).
1. The Eagles have been overhyped. That’s probably a fortunate fusion of the 49ers QB room spontaneously combusting and Mahomes’ ankle issue, but the notion that this is some unstoppable juggernaut of a roster is overblown. It feels like the Bengals hype train all over again, to be honest. If Brock Purdy played the entire game and Mahomes never got hurt, I fully believe the Chiefs would be favored. It should help the Chiefs though. I like them as the battle-tested underdog with a chip on their shoulder over the cocky favorite who played a cupcake schedule. Mahomes, Jones, and Kelce in particular got embarrassed by the Bengals in last year’s AFCCG. They’ve been on the warpath for 54 weeks now. They know their legacies are at stake. They are the three best players in this game (with apologies to Lane Johnson, who might be fourth). I expect the stars to shine bright on the biggest stage in sports. No, I’m not talking about Rihanna, though she’ll probably be good too.
Chiefs 31, Eagles 27
Kansas City gets another parade. Mahomes is already in the GOAT convo. Kelce is the GOAT and defeats his big brother’s team. Jones becomes a surefire Hall of Famer. Reid’s legend is cemented. Len Dawson is honored during the season of his death. Storybook stuff.