What the KC Chiefs must do in order to win Super Bowl LVII
4. Make Jalen Hurts throw deep
This may sound counterintuitive as the Eagles have an excellent wide receiver duo in A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith but this is likely the best course of action for Steve Spagnuolo. Since Jalen Hurts returned from his shoulder injury in Week 18, he has a 30% completion percentage (30% adjusted completion percentage) on deep pass attempts, compared to 39.6% before the injury. His Pro Football Focus ($) passing grade on deep balls has dropped from 89.1 (17th out of 39 quarterbacks) to 60.1 (15th out of 17 quarterbacks) since Week 18.
Yes, his shoulder will be healthier after the two-week break but the Eagles weren’t an efficient deep-passing team when he was healthy. Even before the shoulder injury, he was inaccurate on those throws over 60% of the time. Since the injury, he’s been inaccurate on 70% of such throws. Brown and Smith are incredible players but if the passer throwing the ball is missing them, then it doesn’t matter that much. The two stars have only caught a combined 42.6% of targets on deep routes all season, including 33.3% since Hurts came back from his injury. Granted, that number should be 22.2% since Devonta Smith clearly did not catch one of his targets.
If Steve Spagnulo can force an injured quarterback to make a higher degree of difficulty throws, then that increases the likelihood of the defense getting off the field faster. They may get burned a couple of times but an incompletion is an incompletion, no matter where the quarterback throws the ball. If the Chiefs can make Jalen Hurts attempt passes that have fallen incomplete over 60% of the time for him this season, then they have a good chance of limiting the Philadelphia offense.
It won’t be easy to accomplish this as the Eagles have a great run game and a great offensive scheme. It’s pretty difficult to “force” a team to throw deep but it also doesn’t have to be true deep balls. It could be more throws to the outside, into tight windows, etc. Make Jalen Hurts attempt harder throws with an injured shoulder.