Bet this Patrick Mahomes exotic prop bet

Two things about Super Bowl LVII are certain for Kansas City Chiefs’ fans: You’re betting on the game and you’re NOT betting on the Philaldephia Eagles.

If Kansas City’s moneyline odds (+105 on DraftKings) aren’t worth the risk to you, it might be worth looking into placing your money on Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes has several prop bets available on DraftKings, but this one is my favorite: +750 odds on Mahomes recording 150+ passing yards in both halves.

If you want to ride with me on this exotic prop bet, you can find it at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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On the surface, it seems like a no-brainer: Betting on the league MVP on the biggest stage led by one of the best offensive coaches in the game in Andy Reid.

But let’s break down why this bet makes sense beyond name recognition.

To throw for 150+ yards in each half, Mahomes will have to finish with at least 300 passing yards, so let’s start there.

Mahomes has thrown for 300+ yards in 11 of his 19 games. Since Week 5, Mahomes has been on a tear: Throwing for 300+ yards in 10 of 14 games.

Since that hot streak started in Week 6, Mahomes has thrown for 150+ passing yards in each half in six of 14 games, clearing that number even in games against some top defenses, too, such as San Francisco and Buffalo.

If you’re worried about Mahomes’s productivity coming off his high ankle sprain, he also cleared this number just two weeks ago against Cincinnati – throwing for 165 yards in the first half and 161 yards in the second half.

Though Mahomes threw for just 270 yards in his most recent Super Bowl appearance in 2021, he attempted 49 passes that game.

But there’s more to examine with this bet than just looking at Mahomes.

At first glance, it may look like this will be a tough number for Mahomes to hit against Philadelphia.

The Eagles have allowed the least amount of passing yards in the NFL at 171 yards per game. However, the Eagles have faced perhaps the easiest lineup of quarterbacks of any team this season.

This is who the Eagles have had to stop this season, from Week 1 on: Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Carson Wentz, Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, Cooper Rush, Kenny Pickett, Davis Mills, Taylor Heinicke, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill, Daniel Jones, Justin Fields, Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton, Davis Webb, Daniel Jones (again) and Brock Purdy with a torn UCL.

Of that bunch, Rodgers and Prescott stand out.

This season, Rodgers was dealing with a broken thumb on his throwing hand and did not throw for 300+ yards in a single game.

Prescott? In his one game against the Eagles, he finished with 347 passing yards (168 in 1H, 179 in 2H).

It should be noted that this was the ONLY time the Eagles allowed a quarterback to reach 300 yards or more against them. However, just three of the quarterbacks they faced finished in the top 10 in passing yards (Cousins fourth, Goff sixth, Lawrence ninth).

If the Chiefs are going to compete with the Eagles, Mahomes is going to have to add his name next to Prescott’s. At +750 odds, that’s a bet I’m willing to take.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.