Four stats that will decide Super Bowl LVII

Super Bowl LVII is likely going to come down to some telling stats with the Eagles and Chiefs involved. Here are the numbers that matter.

The stage has been set. The world will tune in. The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles are the last two teams standing and will settle the score for the Lombardi Trophy in just under two weeks on Super Bowl Sunday. It should not only be a terrific matchup but also a global spectacle of the best of American sports and entertainment.

Beyond all of the pomp and circumstance, however, there is an actual game to be played at some point. One team is going to make their Super Bowl dreams come true and celebrate with a parade while the other goes home.

Let’s look at some of the numbers that tell us more about the matchup and what might end up deciding who leaves head-in-hands and who will be lighting another round of cigars.

4 > 22

This is the number of teams faced by the Eagles that put up more than 22 points in a single game. That either tells you that the Eagles’ defense is very good (they are) or it speaks to the quality of their opponents (it does). If that’s hard to reconcile, well, it is. The Lions, Commanders, Packers, and Cowboys were able to put up more than 22, which seems like a small ask of the Chiefs as well. Their record in those games: 2-2. The fact that the Chiefs are so productive offensively presents a real hurdle for Philly.

8 of 19

The Eagles are very, very good at something the Chiefs were not this year: all things turnovers. They rank fourth in the NFL in committing turnovers (19) and fifth in the NFL in generating them (27). THe Eagles offense didn’t turn the ball over at all in 9 of their 17 regular-season games. Even more, 8 of their 19 turnovers on the season came in two games—both losses with 4 TO each against the Cowboys and Commanders. Solid rivals can goad the Eagles into making mistakes, but by and large, the Eagles play mistake-free football.

4 x 11

The Chiefs had a very healthy pass rush throughout the season and that has continued as the team has reached deep into the postseason. The Chiefs have sacked Trevor Lawrence of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals a total of 7 times for 44 yards lost in the last two games and Chris Jones is playing like a man on fire.

That said, even the Chiefs have nothing on the Eagles this season who led the NFL with an incredible 70 sack total. The Eagles had four players with at least 11 sacks on the season—Brandon Graham, Javon Hargrave, Josh Sweat, and Haason Reddick, who ended with 16. That’s not to mention the 7 from Fletcher Cox. The Chiefs’ front line is going to have a very, very difficult time up front in this one.

5:1

Say what you will about the Eagles’ level of competition, but a team can only handle what they are given and Philly has been given the New York Giants (for the third time) and San Francisco 49ers (who have no quarterback) in the last two rounds of the NFL postseason. That said, the Eagles have taken care of business by a combined 69-14 point total—meaning they’re outscoring their fellow postseason franchises by a 5:1 ratio.