Andy Reid’s ATS record after a bye week is amazing

Every NFL season when the Kansas City Chiefs come out of their bye week, all the talking heads on TV discuss Andy Reid’s record as a coach after the bye. It’s the hottest topic in sports because Reid’s team’s performances in that situation are unprecedented: a 22-3 record in the regular season and 7-3 in the playoffs.

While that’s good fodder for the masses, for bettors it’s somewhat useless. The Chiefs are typically big favorites coming off a bye based on the aforementioned trend, rendering a moneyline bet useless.

But what if I told you Andy Reid coached teams also thrive ATS in those situations and even more so in the playoffs? Is that something you’d be interested in? Yeah, me too.

The Chiefs are 8.5-point favorites against the Jags in the Divisional Round of the playoffs this week, but I’m betting on them for multiple reasons, one of which is Reid’s ATS record in this situation.

Overall, Reid-coached teams are 22-13 ATS coming off a bye. That’s a 62.9-win percentage. Bettors dream of a win percentage that high.

In the playoffs, that record is even better; 7-3, a 70% win rate, coming off a bye. Now we’re really getting rich.

With Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback, the Chiefs are 4-1 overall in the playoffs after a bye and 3-2 ATS. Not quite as dominant as the above stats, but two of those games were in the Super Bowl. Looking only at the divisional round, the Chiefs are is 2-1 ATS after a bye week with Mahomes under center.

While I’m not telling you to blindly bet on the Chiefs this week, I do feel comfortable backing them even with a higher spread. I wrote yesterday about how Mahomes doesn’t have a great ATS record when the spread is 7 points or more, but Reid’s record as a coach with extra time to prepare negates that to me. I’m rolling with Reid, Mahomes, and the Chiefs at -8.5.