KC Chiefs at Raiders predictions: AA writers’ picks for Week 18

Let’s check out what our staff writers are predicting for the Kansas City Chiefs’ final game of the regular season against the Las Vegas Raiders.

The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Las Vegas Raiders in the final regular-season game of a year in which the Chiefs (13-3) have won more games than any other team in the AFC and are hitting their stride just before they hit the playoffs. With much still up in the air about how AFC seeding will shake out, just know that when the Chiefs take the field on Saturday, they probably won’t even know what they can gain by winning.

It appears (as of Thursday night) that the Chiefs can secure the 1-seed and the bye with a win over the Raiders, by way of having the best winning percentage in the conference. However, this doesn’t necessarily secure home-field throughout the playoffs for the Chiefs, depending on what happens in later games. Regardless, the Chiefs know they have a lot to gain by handing the Raiders a loss. Thankfully, the Raiders are eliminated from contention, but as we once again learned last week, never count out a divisional foe.

After the team exiled Derek Carr, Jarrett Stidham led Las Vegas into OT against the 49ers last week. There’s no way this Raiders team has forgotten losing to the Chiefs 30-29 in October when they led the Chiefs 17-0 in the 2nd quarter.

The Raiders can help themselves out a little bit in the upcoming NFL draft by losing this game, but they didn’t do that to the 49ers last week and certainly won’t be trying to do that in the season’s final game. They will pull out all the stops in order to stick it to the Chiefs.

Here’s a gross stat: Kansas City hasn’t finished a game with positive EPA (expected points added) on special teams in three months since their Week 5 game against—you guessed it—the Raiders. The Chiefs need a clean game from their special teams entering the postseason.

Writer recap

Kudos goes to Ellen Mathis for her stellar 30-24 prediction for last week’s Chiefs/Broncos game in which the Chiefs won, 27-24. Here’s a look at this week’s staff picks for the Chiefs and Raiders:

Patrick Allen (12-4)
I’m done expecting consistency from this Chiefs team. At this point, what you see is what you get. The Chiefs are talented enough to win the Super Bowl and hang with any team in the NFL, and they are also bone-headed enough to play down to their competition, leaving inferior teams in games well into the 4th quarter. The Chiefs will give up a ton of yards to Davante Adams, will make Jarrett Stidham look like a Pro Bowler, will miss a FG or extra point, will have one inexplicable turnover, and will win the game late by six points.
Chiefs 27, Raiders 21

Matt Conner (12-4)
The Chiefs and Raiders tend to put up a lot of points when facing the other, but K.C.’s defense is in need of a confidence-boosting final tune-up. The Jarrett Stidham Experience will be a one-time ride only for Las Vegas and the Chiefs should coast to an easy win by far more than the current spread.
Chiefs 24, Raiders 12

Anthony Hatton (12-4)
Kansas City needs to come in focused and ready to control its own destiny to maintain the #1 seed in the AFC. Las Vegas has nothing to lose which makes them a more dangerous opponent than their record suggests. Expect the Chiefs to get an early lead and a little too conservative in their play-calling in the second half. This will lend to the score being closer than how the game actually plays out.
Chiefs 31, Raiders 24

Scott Loring (11-5)
Raiders tight end Darren Waller is finally healthy and wideout Davante Adams is having an All-Pro season. The Chiefs also have injuries to key players on offense (Joe Thuney), defense (L’Jarius Sneed), and special teams (Harrison Butker). Whether it’s a sloppy mistake or turnover on special teams, a vanilla defense, or some questionable help from the stripes, I have a feeling the Chiefs drop one here that they shouldn’t.
Raiders 30, Chiefs 23

Ellen Mathis (14-2)
It’s the season finale with so many questions lingering and a pretty impressive performance from the Raiders last week. Nevertheless, the Chiefs have everything to play for and they show it, handing the Raiders a blowout loss to head into the offseason and stew on. JuJu is the standout in this game further solidifying the need to sign him back to KC.
Chiefs 38, Raiders 17

Jacob Milham (13-3)
The Chiefs are going for the division sweep this Saturday, and I think they will get it. The Chiefs can’t take the Raiders too lightly though, as Las Vegas almost beat the San Francisco 49ers last week. Both teams have top-tier players with injury designators entering the game. Las Vegas is playing for some pride, and Denver showed how dangerous a team can be with nothing to lose. This will be a good game, but I cannot take Jarrett Stidham over Patrick Mahomes.
Chiefs 31, Raiders 27

KC Proctor (13-3)
As the biggest Derek Carr hater in the universe, it makes my heart hurt that we will no longer get to see him get abused by the Chiefs. After what 2022-23 has been for the AFC West, I don’t expect Stidham to come in and reclaim the Raiders’ involvement in the division. The top seed is still in reach and Mahomes will do all he can to get it.
Chiefs 38, Raiders 24 

Charles Robinson (14-2)
Another week, another game that the Chiefs should win easily. But as we’ve all seen in the last month, “should” and “will” don’t always line up. Expect the Raiders to come out with a point to prove with not much left to gain this year other than a win over the arch-rival Chiefs. Kansas City needs to dial in their special teams to instill some confidence heading into the postseason and should take advantage of running the ball against a below-average Raiders run defense to set up some shots down the field against a downright bad Raiders secondary. This one will be close whether we like it or not.
Chiefs 33, Raiders 28

Byron Smith (6-2)
KC wins and they are in the bye week, lose and play in the wild card, but still never play a road game in the playoffs if the Championship game is at a neutral site. Expect Andy Reid to still be running the “I’m not showing you anything” playbook he’s been running for three weeks now, but Mahomes may be playing with a little extra something, trying to catch up to the single-season record in passing yards and passing touchdowns in a season. Jarrett Stidham has gifted KC a ton of interceptions before, and this would be a great time for the Chiefs’ defense to learn to grab a takeaway.
Chiefs 42, Raiders 35

Stacy Smith (3-1)
The Kansas City Chiefs, after an uncertain week of backroom NFL decision-making, are potentially on the verge of locking up the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They’ll visit a Las Vegas Raiders team who might’ve found life in new starting quarterback Jarrett Stidham (who tossed three touchdowns last week against a good San Francisco 49ers defense). Patrick Mahomes has the all-time record for passing yards in a single season in play. JuJu Smith-Schuster is 102 yards shy of 1,000 receiving yards on the season. Look for the Chiefs to sling the ball around the yard a bit to put the Raiders down early. The Chiefs take care of business and win this one.
Chiefs 28, Raiders 21

Lucas Strozinsky (13-3)
The Chiefs need this final regular-season game to ensure a top-2 seed in the conference. Raiders quarterback Jarrett Stidham played better than expected last week, but I don’t trust him enough to believe he’ll light it up again. Chiefs will win, although I’m not convinced it will be easy.
Chiefs 30, Raiders 26

Grant Tuttle (13-2)
It still feels weird for me to think about football in the aftermath of the Bengals-Bills game that never was. That being said, football will continue, and so will the success of the Kansas City Chiefs. The mighty Raiders limp to the final game with more questions than answers. I expect Mahomes and company to be good enough to prevail, though closer than some are comfortable with.
Chiefs 34  Raiders 27