Chiefs vs. Raiders prediction and odds for Week 18 (Patrick Mahomes aims for passing record)

The Kansas City Chiefs are still vying for the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the AFC Playoffs, but that’s not the only thing that’s on the line in their season finale against the Las Vegas Raiders.

Patrick Mahomes heads into Saturday’s game with 5,048 passing yards on the season. That’s 429 yards shy of Peyton Manning’s 2013 record, but it’s not an insurmountable amount.

If Mahomes tries to reach it, things could get ugly for the Raiders.

Let’s dive into the odds for the game and our best betting pick as well as this insane offer for BetMGM users: Bet $10, Win $200 if the Chiefs score ONE TD in the game.

Chiefs vs. Raiders odds, spread, and total

Chiefs vs. Raiders betting trends

• Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games
• Chiefs are 9-1 straight up in the last 10 games against the Raiders
• The OVER is 10-2 in the Chiefs’ last 12 road games
• Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last five games against AFC West opponents
• Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games
• The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between these two teams
• Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against AFC West opponents

Chiefs vs. Raiders prediction and pick

The Chiefs have struggled to cover big spreads in recent seasons, but I think they can get it done in this spot. They still have something to play for in the AFC, but they have, in some ways, been playing their best football of season.

In fact, they lead the NFL in net yards per play over each team’s last three games at +1.9.

Sure, the Raiders offense, specifically Jarrett Stidham, looked great last week against the 49ers, but I wouldn’t put too much stock in that. Let’s see Stidham have multiple strong performances like that before putting our faith in it being a consistent outcome.

The Chiefs’ biggest weakness is their red zone defense, but they could catch a break in that area this week. The Raiders are 27th in red zone touchdown scoring percentage, finding six points on only 50% of their red zone trips.

Kansas City will end the season on a high note, and don’t be shocked if Mahomes gets close to setting the single-season passing yards record. He might not reach it, but he’ll try his hardest.

You can track Iain’s bets on Betstamp here.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.