Why KC Chiefs are favoring wide receiver Justin Watson

During the month of December, wide receiver Justin Watson’s workload has become a curious case for fans of the Kansas City Chiefs.

The hard truth about Kansas City Chiefs newcomer Justin Watson is that since December 4th, he’s had more drops than receptions. That Week 13 game against the Cincinnati Bengals was the last time he caught a pass from quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Despite the lack of production, Watson has still averaged 68% of the offensive snaps in the weeks following that matchup. At first blush, it might be difficult to understand the commitment of a player contributing so little to the offense. A closer inspection unravels the mystery.

For starters, Watson’s snap count peaked following an abdominal injury that sent fourth-year man Mecole Hardman to the team’s injured reserve list. Hardman would make his last start in Week 9. Watson’s spike in snaps came one week later when the Jacksonville Jaguars visited the Kansas City Chiefs. Prior to that contest, the former Penn Quaker had not played more than 26 offensive snaps in any other game this season.

Fellow wideout Kadarius Toney has also missed time—three games between Weeks 12 and 14—so Watson’s offensive opportunities are partly a by-product of a banged-up receiving corps. One has to wonder why rookie Skyy Moore, and to a lesser extent the healthy version of Toney, haven’t been the beneficiaries of Hardman’s absence. The answer (albeit unsatisfying) is that the Chiefs’ coaching staff operates according to a strict trust principle. Watson is a five-year veteran that comes with assurances where knowing his playbook and assignment are concerned. That has a maximum value for Andy Reid. More importantly, it’s a constant that spans the entire coaching staff for K.C.

I’m old enough to remember when Chiefs Kingdom asked the same questions about Ben Niemann and a wilted Daniel Sorensen’s defensive presence. They were playing ahead of clearly more talented although younger players. On the surface, it might appear that talent and production are the primary factors in determining which NFL players see game action. In Kansas City, the coaching staff has a demonstrated track record that suggests the equation is more complex than that.

Drops and an overall lack of offensive contribution should trump experience and comfort in the system, right? Logically, if another player has a higher ceiling, they should command the offensive snaps. Fortunately for Watson, a drop is simply a failure to execute a play. The Chiefs’ coaching staff can live with poor execution. What they seem less tolerant of are negative plays. While a negative play can certainly be the result of poor execution, the chances for a negative play go up when a player is in the wrong place on the field. Chunk plays are created when a defender’s in the wrong spot. Turnovers often follow an offensive player being out of position.

If we’re honest, we’ve seen this play out, on more than one occasion, with Kansas City’s second-round draft pick Skyy Moore. Mahomes has thrown more than one interception this season due to Moore running the wrong route. The previous week, rookie running back Isiah Pacheco failed to pick up a blitzing defender and Mahomes was sacked midway through the first quarter. This is why we typically don’t see Pacheco tasked with protecting the quarterback on passing downs. The Chiefs simply don’t have much faith that he’s comfortable with that assignment yet.

The simple answer is that Watson is less likely to contribute a negative play because, unlike his younger cohorts, he’s far more likely to be where he ought to be. In time, Chiefs coaches will extend more trust to Kansas City’s inexperienced receivers. I’ve been telling fans all offseason to temper their Year One expectations for Moore. At the trade deadline, I made the same argument for Toney. Reid’s offense is simply too prohibitive for rookie receivers. Toney’s not a rookie but had just 12 games of NFL experience prior to coming to Kansas City. The requirement to learn every wide receiver position can be overwhelming for a player still trying to get adjusted to the speed and culture of the NFL.

The problem should regulate itself a bit once Hardman returns to the lineup, but I don’t expect a wholesale change to Watson’s presence in the offense in 2022. The Chiefs simply don’t have many options beyond Marquez Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Right now, Watson is one of the most trustworthy receivers on this offense in terms of system comfort, knowing his assignment, and reliable route running. Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore’s time is coming, but likely not until 2023.