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Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction and odds for Week 17 (Kansas City crushes Denver to cover at home)

By Iain MacMillan

Dec 11, 2022; Denver, Colorado, USA; Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones (95) sacks Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) in the first half at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 11, 2022; Denver, Colorado, USA; Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones (95) sacks Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) in the first half at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Denver Broncos are a dumpster fire of an organization right now, and there is nothing you can say to convince me to bet on them against the Chiefs this week.

When Patrick Star of SpongeBob SquarePants fame commentates a back-breaking interception in a 51-14 loss to the Los Angeles Rams, your season is officially over. Sorry, those are the rules.

Denver has reportedly fired Nathaniel Hackett, according to NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, only lasting 15 games in his first season on the job; going just 4-11 with zero wins vs. division and just two victories vs. the AFC.

While the Chiefs have famously been awful at covering wide spreads in games of late, I think this is a time where you have to back them to do just that.

Let’s dive into the odds for this AFC West matchup.

Broncos vs. Chiefs odds, spread, and total

Broncos vs. Chiefs betting trends

  • The UNDER is 11-4 in Broncos’ last 15 games
  • Chiefs are 10-4 ATS in last 14 games vs. Broncos
  • Broncos are 0-10 straight up in last 10 meetings between these teams
  • Chiefs are 2-4 ATS in their last six games
  • The UNDER is 5-0 in the Chiefs’ last five games
  • Chiefs are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games against AFC opponents
  • Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against AFC West opponents

Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction and pick

You can’t convince me to bet on the Broncos in this spot. Russell Wilson was benched for Brett Rypien last week, and nobody on that sideline is happy. It’s truly a disaster all around for a team that was supposed to be a playoff contender.

Their final bright spot finally dimmed in Week 16. Their top tier defense allowed 51 points to the lowly Los Angeles Rams, while making Baker Mayfield look like a Pro Bowler.

The Chiefs’ defense has had issues in recent weeks, but looked to get back on track against the Seahawks on Saturday. Meanwhile, Mahomes will continue to be Mahomes, playing at an MVP level in the final stretch. The Chiefs’ offense also leads the NFL in yards per play.

They allowed the Broncos to back door cover earlier in the season, but I can’t see that happening again on Sunday. I’ll lay the points with Kansas City.

You can track Iain’s bets on Betstamp here.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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