Chiefs Kingdom’s guide to NFL’s best bets for Week 16

KANSAS CITY, MO - NOVEMBER 13: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs and Kadarius Toney #19 of the Kansas City Chiefs smile after a third quarter play against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Arrowhead Stadium on November 13, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)
KANSAS CITY, MO - NOVEMBER 13: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs and Kadarius Toney #19 of the Kansas City Chiefs smile after a third quarter play against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Arrowhead Stadium on November 13, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images) /

Hey Chiefs Kingdom, get cozy with some of the NFL’s best bets (as we see ’em) heading into a holiday known as Week 16.

For a weekend that will be highlighted by a couple of overweight men wearing red—Andy Reid and Santa Claus—flying high and dishing out delights to all of the good boys and girls of both Chiefs Kingdom and the globe for that matter, I fear that we’re in store for a football weekend that will result in nothing but stockings full of coal for bettors who enjoy points.

Of the 11 games kicking off on Christmas Eve, which is Saturday afternoon for those of you that get totally disassociated from standard days of the week during the holiday season like me, seven of those will be kicking off in frigid temperatures (outdoors) of 18 degrees or less.

Sure, getting a bunch of unders and bad weather games could leave a little to be desired this holiday season, but don’t forget about how much we have to be thankful for this time of the year. Whether you’re celebrating a holiday this weekend of just the winding down of yet another year when the root word “demic” once again reigned supreme, there are certainly things to celebrate in closing out 2022.

First and foremost, Chiefs Kingdom gets 3 weeks of Kansas City Chiefs football in which the team has yet again clinched the AFC West early. We’re in the middle of 15 consecutive days of football with college bowls surrounding a stacked weekend slate of NFL action. And, regardless of your beliefs, there will be a large, red-cheeked retail magnate riding in a sleigh pulled by lab-engineered flying reindeer delivering gifts to children who behaved this year. What a world we live in.

What did I ask for for Christmas this year? Well, to start I’d love a 4-0 week. Last week’s 2-2 performance marked the worst week of the year thus far but still has us at 25-13-1 with 3 weeks left to pick. A strong showing this week and we could be in good standing as the best NFL picks source on the entire internet.

This week I’m going with a wishlist of picks rather than my retired gambler intuition. This week I’m picking straight from the heart, with an emphasis on still finding as way to give you the best bets of the week.

Houston Texans +3.5 at Tennessee Titans

My wish: the Texans prove they’re actually decent and didn’t just catch the Chiefs slipping.

This has back-against-the-wall bounce back performance written all over it for Tennessee—if Ryan Tannehill plays. But he’s not going to. Houston has looked extremely chippy the last two weeks in taking the Cowboys down to the wire and the Chiefs to overtime in back-to-back games. While the offense isn’t doing much to impress over that span, the defense has looked alive and has made plays. Even though Houston’s record doesn’t indicate it, their play is on the rise and the Titans are moving the exact opposite direction. I’d probably still take Tennessee moneyline if I was playing that, but I don’t like them by more than a field goal.

Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears OVER 40.5

My wish: Points. Just some points, please.

Josh Allen, Justin Fields, and a race to 41 total points? Yes, please. The Bills’ overs are 7-0 in their last 7 road games and the Bears are 7-1 to the over in their last 8 games overall, the only miss being by 3 points last week against the Eagles. It would be one thing if Miami was coming to Chicago and the over was in question, but Allen and the Bills thrive in weather like they’ll see in Chicago on Saturday. This is one of the rare opportunities to bet an over and be comfortable with it this weekend. Don’t pass it up.

Detroit Lions -2.5 at Carolina Panthers

My wish: Another happy Dan Campbell press conference so I can hear the word “man” roughly 97 times.

The fighting Dan Campbells aren’t just one of the hottest teams in the NFL, but they’re playing like one of the league’s best. They are 6-1 in their last 7 games overall and 7-0 ATS in that time frame. They haven’t just beaten up on bad teams either, as wins over the Vikings, Jaguars, Jets, and Giants (and a narrow three-point loss to Buffalo sandwiched in there) show that the Lions are capable of beating playoff-caliber teams. Carolina is chippy and will test the Lions, but the good energy that Campbell and the Lions are riding right now feels like it’s too much to stop.

Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5

My wish: To see the Raiders lose in equally as crushing fashion with which they defeated the Patriots last week.

The stars are perfectly aligned for an absolute heartbreaker for the Raiders in this one. Not only is it the 50th anniversary of the “Immaculate Reception”, but it falls on the same week that Steelers legend—and receptor of the Immaculate ball—Franco Harris sadly passed away. Not only is history on Pittsburgh’s side, they also have the late legend bump. Angels in the Outfield has nothing on what Harris may or may not be able to pull off as the 12th man on Pittsburgh’s offense this weekend. A loss would all but end the Raiders late push at a repeat playoff appearance as well.

Of course, my biggest wish this holiday weekend is that everyone gets a chance to let their hair down, relax, and enjoy friends, family, or time to yourself – whatever you’re in to. Say hello to a stranger, smile, and spread the good spirit if you’re out and about. You never know what that smile or that “hello” could mean to someone who needs it more than you know.

Also, for Christmas this year I would love to see the Chiefs blast the Seahawks and put the rest of the AFC and the NFL on notice heading into the playoffs. That would be pretty sweet. Just give me one dominant performance before the playoffs, ok Santa?

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