AFC playoff picture, Week 15: KC Chiefs clinch AFC West

In Week 15, the Indianapolis Colts went on the road to Minnesota on Saturday afternoon. The Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens also met on Saturday. The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins capped off Saturday Night in the snow. The Kansas City Chiefs played the Texans in Houston. The Jacksonville Jaguars saw the Dallas Cowboys come to town. The Pittsburgh Steelers traveled to Charlotte to play the Panthers. The New York Jets played host to the Detroit Lions. The Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots met in Southern Nevada. The Chargers and Tennessee Titans met in Los Angeles. The Denver Broncos played the Cardinals at home. Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals squared off against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.

Here is what the AFC Standings look like after Week 15:

At the conclusion of Week 14, the Buffalo Bills were the favorites to come out of the AFC and advance to Super Bowl LVII. FiveThirtyEight (QB Adjusted) had the Bills as the team with the best chance to win the Super Bowl out of all teams in the AFC, with a 19% chance to win it all before Week 15. After Buffalo, the Kansas City Chiefs were at 17%; the Cincinnati Bengals were at 7%, and the Baltimore Ravens were at 5%.

The Indianapolis Colts blew the biggest lead in NFL history to Minnesota in their loss. The Tyler Huntley-led Baltimore Ravens fell to the Cleveland Browns on Saturday. The Buffalo Bills won an amazing game over the Miami Dolphins in the snow. The Kansas City Chiefs barely beat the Houston Texans in overtime. The New York Jets fell to the Lions after a last-second missed field goal. The Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Panthers in Charlotte.

The Jacksonville Jaguars stunned the Cowboys after a pick-six in overtime. The Brett Rypien-led Denver Broncos comfortably beat the Cardinals after Colt McCoy left the game. The Las Vegas Raiders stunned the New England Patriots after one of the most ridiculous plays in the history of the NFL. The Los Angeles Chargers topped the Tennessee Titans after a clutch game-winning drive by Justin Herbert. The Cincinnati Bengals came back from 17-0 down to earn a win over the Buccaneers.

I’m not sure how the Colts can bring back Jeff Saturday in 2023 after the embarrassing blown lead. The Ravens need Lamar Jackson to get healthy in the worst way, while we may have seen a glimpse of what the Browns could be in the future. The Dolphins impressed more in their loss than they did in some of their wins, and the Bills reinforced that they will be a tough out in January.

The Chiefs are playing too sloppy to be considered a serious threat in the playoffs, and the Texans are playing well enough that Lovie Smith may be retained for next season. Although Zach Wilson wasn’t completely terrible, the Jets’ playoff dreams took a serious hit on Sunday. The Steelers are playing solid football down the stretch this season. The Jaguars could be a problem in 2023 as Trevor Lawrence continues to play very well. The Broncos ended their five-game losing streak despite being down Russell Wilson.

The Raiders are playing with confidence, while the Patriots need to address their offense in the offseason. The Chargers are tough to beat when Justin Herbert is playing well, and the Titans need to improve their offensive line and receiving core in the offseason if they want to compete for a Super Bowl. It’s not crazy to consider the Bengals the AFC favorites after their impressive win over Tampa Bay.

After Week 15, seven teams in the AFC have a winning record; seven teams have a losing record, and two teams are at exactly 0.500. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Buffalo Bills are the team with the best chance to win the Super Bowl in the AFC with a 20% chance to win it all. After Buffalo, the Kansas City Chiefs are at 18%; the Cincinnati Bengals are at 9%, and the Baltimore Ravens are at 3%.

In the race for the #1 seed in the AFC, per FiveThirtyEight, the Bills still have the best chance to finish atop the conference in the regular season standings at 50%, with the Chiefs second at 38%, and the Bengals third at 12%.

It’s clear as day that the AFC is stronger and deeper than the NFC. The AFC playoffs will be a bloodbath, with the Bills, Chiefs, and Bengals as the clear favorites. The Chargers, Ravens (with a healthy Lamar Jackson), and Dolphins are not far behind. The Chiefs have the highest ceiling in the conference, but their continued sloppy play gives them the lowest floor. They need to stop turning the ball over and missing kicks if they want to win Super Bowl LVII.