Chiefs Kingdom’s guide to NFL’s best bets for Week 15

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - OCTOBER 16: Chris Jones #95 of the Kansas City Chiefs tries to get the crowd going during the fourth quarter against the Buffalo Bills at Arrowhead Stadium on October 16, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jason Hanna/Getty Images)
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - OCTOBER 16: Chris Jones #95 of the Kansas City Chiefs tries to get the crowd going during the fourth quarter against the Buffalo Bills at Arrowhead Stadium on October 16, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jason Hanna/Getty Images) /

Hey Chiefs Kingdom, get in on Saturday and Sunday’s NFL action with some of the best bets we see for Week 15.

I can’t do it. I simply cannot complete a Sunday with a flawless pick board. No matter how hard I try, no matter how many numbers I crunch, I always end up with at least 1 loss. Last week, after a 3-0 start including a gutsy fourth-quarter cover by Mike White and the Jets, I fell flat on my face with the Sunday Night Football over not even getting close.

So here we sit, 23-11-1 (a .657 winning percentage, find one better on the internet) in picks on Arrowhead Addict Best Bets after yet another 3-1 Sunday. I probably would have hit on all 4 had I been punctual and not submitted my blog last minute while the Arrowhead Addict podcast crew was prepping for a smashing success of a live broadcast from Tanner’s Bar & Grill last Sunday, but I digress. This week is all about resetting expectations. Maybe if I expect to go 3-1 or 2-2, I can actually crack the 4-0 code. I’ve tried picking five games and still won three. Tried taking the lowest-hanging fruit… still won 3. Let’s see if simply not believing in myself in the least bit this week can get me to the 4 win plateau I’ve been seeking.

For the first time since Week 5, all 32 NFL teams will be on the field this weekend. I say weekend because another fan favorite—Saturday football—will be on the menu for all of us for the first time in 2022. If you don’t have your holiday shopping done, get it in on Friday. There’s NFL action to be consumed Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday this week. This truly is the most wonderful time of the year.

Miami Dolphins (+7.5) at Buffalo Bills

I know Miami is trending in the wrong direction, but what exactly has Buffalo done recently to warrant being more than a touchdown favorite over the Dolphins in the last few weeks? They’re 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games and have put up 24 and 20 points in back-to-back weeks. Josh Allen’s MVP campaign is off the rails and the Dolphins’ (once) explosive offense should provide plenty for Buffalo to deal with defensively, especially without Von Miller.

Tyreek Hill’s history against the Bills should conjure up some positive memories for Chiefs fans, but not so much for Bills Mafia. I look for Mike McDaniel to have some unique looks drawn up for the Dolphins’ offense coming into a game that Miami needs to win if they want to have any shot at all of winning the AFC East. 7.5 points is a slap in the face to a team that won the first matchup between these two straight up in Week 3.

Detroit Lions (-1) at New York Jets

Two teams that I think are rideable right now facing off in a must-win game for both. This is without a doubt the Week 15 Grit Bowl. How can you get any grittier than Dan Campbell’s team facing off against Mike White, whose liver is still on the turf in Orchard Park, in a game that absolutely no one saw having playoff implications when the season began? The 7-6 Jets and 6-7 Lions are fighting for their playoff lives.

It is truly a matchup of strength vs strength with the Jets’ stout defense (ranked third in the NFL in yards and points allowed) squaring off with an explosive Lions offense (fourth in yards and fifth in points). The key here is going to be the sudden emergence of Lions rookie Jameson Williams. His first catch as a pro last week? A 41-yard TD bomb from Jared Goff. This Lions team feels like they have momentum in their corner, ripping off wins in 5 of their last 6, and I look for them to keep that rolling against a Jets team that likely can’t keep pace offensively.

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears OVER 48.5

The Bears were off last week, so I couldn’t continue to ride the Bears’ over train, but they are back with the perfect opponent and the perfect line to get right back on the over track this weekend. Philly could potentially hit this over on their own with the way Chicago’s defense has played since the trade deadline, but I expect Justin Fields and the newly explosive Bears offense to do their part in easily surpassing this number.

It’s stunning to me that some lines in the NFL can reach over 52, 53 points but the Bears and Eagles are still sitting sub-50. The Eagles overs are 7-1 in their last 8 games and Chicago is on a 7-game over tear. Read the tea leaves here, folks. Smash those points.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5)

This is a rat line and I love it. Cincinnati is coming off of back-to-back emotional wins over Kansas City and Joe Burrow’s first career win over the Browns. Those were both “prove it” games for Cincy, and they frankly looked dominant in both. Do you know who didn’t look dominant last week? The Bucs.

That’s exactly why you should take them to cover 3.5 (and if you’re feeling brave, take the money line) against the Bengals on Sunday. They need the win, they just got embarrassed, and it’s a home matinee game for Tom Brady. Complete gut/heart combo pick here, and probably the one that will derail my picks this week, but I’m going to manifest the hell out of this outcome.

I’m probably barreling towards a 2-2 or 1-3 week, but who cares. Trying to bring some positive energy to the current enemies of the Chiefs’ most important rivals. Hopefully, it works, and if not, there’s always next week. Can only say that for so much longer, though.

Note: Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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