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Chiefs vs. Texans Best Bet: Put Trust Back in Kansas City Defense

By Iain MacMillan

Sep 10, 2020; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) takes a snap during the first half against the Houston Texans at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 10, 2020; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) takes a snap during the first half against the Houston Texans at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports /
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Find the best available odds, spreads and totals, plus a prediction and Chiefs vs. Texans best bet for Week 15 in the NFL.

Week 15 features a matchup against arguably the best team in the NFL, the Kansas City Chiefs, against the worst team in the NFL, the Houston Texans.

For Chiefs fans, this game should offer very little to worry about. Even if Kansas City has stumbled at times recently, including allowing the Broncos to get back in the game last Sunday, they should have no issue adding another notch in the win column.

But, what about from a betting perspective?

The Chiefs are listed as huge favorites, but can they cover the spread after failing to do so yet again last week?

Let’s dive into the odds and then I’ll give you my best bet.

Chiefs vs. Texans Odds, Spread, and Total

Chiefs vs. Texans Betting Trends

  • Chiefs are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games
  • Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against Texans
  • The OVER is 9-2 in the Chiefs last 11 road games
  • Chiefs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against AFC opponents
  • Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games
  • Texans are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games against Chiefs
  • The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams

Chiefs vs. Texans Prediction and Pick

With no disrespect to Patrick Mahomes and company, a 14-point spread is a little too rich for my blood. So, instead of betting on the spread, I’d recommend taking a look at the total.

Despite what the last two weeks might have shown you, the Chiefs defense, as a whole, has improved lately. They’re allowing only 5.0 yards per play over their last three games, which is 0.4 yards fewer than their season average of 5.4.

Now, they get to face the worst offense in all of football. The Texans rank in the bottom five in virtually every single category, so it’s a good chance for Kansas City to pad it’s defensive stats.

If there’s one bright spot on the Texans this season, it’s been their defense. Specifically, their third down and red zone defense. They rank 17th in opponent third down conversion percentage and 7th in red zone defense. If the Texans can keep the Chiefs in check in the red zone, we could see a low final score in this game.

While it may be against your better judgement, let’s trust both defenses, especially the Chiefs’ defense, to play to the best of their ability this week. I recommend betting on the UNDER.

You can track Iain’s bets on Betstamp here.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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