AFC playoff picture, Week 13: Chiefs lose top seed to Bills

In Week 13, the Buffalo Bills traveled to Foxborough to face the Patriots on Thursday Night Football, Deshaun Watson returned to both NFL football and Houston when the Cleveland Browns traveled to take on the Texans in Houston, the Baltimore Ravens hosted the Denver Broncos, the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders squared off in Las Vegas, and the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals met in a showdown of heavyweight AFC offenses.

The New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans, Miami Dolphins, and Indianapolis Colts all went on the road to face NFC opponents.

Here is what the AFC Standings look like after Week 13:

Before the start of Week 13, the Kansas City Chiefs were the favorites to come out of the AFC and advance to Super Bowl LVII. FiveThirtyEight (QB Adjusted) had the Chiefs as the team with the best chance to win the Super Bowl out of all teams in the NFL, with a 22% chance to win it all before Week 13. After Kansas City, the Buffalo Bills were at 12%, and then the Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, and Cincinnati Bengals were all at 4%.

To open the week on Thursday Night Football, the Buffalo Bills beat the New England Patriots in Foxborough. The Tennessee Titans got demolished by the Eagles in Philadelphia. The Cleveland Browns, led by their defense and special teams, won in Deshaun Watson’s return to the NFL and Houston. The Pittsburgh Steelers defeated the Atlanta Falcons on the road. The Jacksonville Jaguars lost against Detroit after Trevor Lawrence went down with a scary leg injury.

The Denver Broncos lost to the Baltimore Ravens despite Lamar Jackson leaving the game early. The New York Jets could not complete the comeback against the Vikings in Minnesota. The Cincinnati Bengals topped the Kansas City Chiefs for the third time in 2022. The Miami Dolphins fell to the 49ers in Santa Clara after a down game from Tua Tagovailoa. The Las Vegas Raiders beat the Los Angeles Chargers after a 17-yard game from Davante Adams. The Indianapolis Colts got crushed by the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.

The Bills look to be back in sync and the Patriots appear to be out of it. The Titans don’t appear to be a team that can do damage in the playoffs. If Deshaun Watson can get rolling, the Browns could be a spoiler down the stretch, while the Texans may be looking at another head coaching change in a month. The Steelers could be a sneaky playoff threat down the stretch, although they have zero margin for error. The Jaguars’ season appears to be over after Trevor Lawrence’s injury. The Broncos’ playoff hopes are officially done, while the Ravens need Lamar Jackson to be healthy to win their division.

The Jets don’t seem to have the quarterback to be a threat in the AFC this season. The Bengals seem to own the Chiefs, which could come back to bite the latter in the playoffs. The Dolphins may have blown their chance to win the AFC East unless they can win in Buffalo Week 15. The Raiders’ recent hot streak could resurrect their playoff hopes and save Josh McDaniels’ job, while Brandon Staley is likely on the hot seat. After the 4th quarter performance on Sunday, it’s unlikely the Jim Irsay will retain Jeff Saturday as the Colts’ head coach for 2023, or at least it should be.

After Week 13, seven teams in the AFC have a losing record, seven teams have a winning record, and two teams are at exactly 0.500. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Buffalo Bills are now the team with the best chance to win the Super Bowl in the AFC again with an 18% chance to win it all. After Buffalo, the Kansas City Chiefs are at 17%, the Cincinnati Bengals are at 6%, the Baltimore Ravens are at 4%, the Tennessee Titans are at 3%, and the Miami Dolphins are at 2%.

In the race for the #1 seed in the AFC, per FiveThirtyEight, after the Kansas City loss, the Bills now have the best chance to finish atop the conference in the regular season standings at 46%, with the Chiefs second at 38%. After Kansas City/Buffalo, the following teams are the Bengals and Dolphins at 9% and 5%, respectively.

After their rough loss against Cincinnati, the Chiefs blew their chance to run the table the rest of the regular season and automatically earn the #1 seed in the AFC, and now they need Buffalo to lose at least once. The Bills are as dominant as anyone on a good day, the Bengals are once again going to be a problem in the playoffs, the Dolphins are as explosive as anyone in the AFC, and the Ravens (with Lamar Jackson) won’t be an easy out.