Chiefs Kingdom’s best bets for Week 13 in the NFL

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 23: Chris Jones #95 of the Kansas City Chiefs reacts after a quarterback sack in the fourth quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium on October 23, 2022 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 23: Chris Jones #95 of the Kansas City Chiefs reacts after a quarterback sack in the fourth quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium on October 23, 2022 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

Hey Chiefs Kingdom, get in on Sunday’s NFL action with some of the best bets we see for Week 13 both before and after the Chiefs kickoff against the Bengals Sunday afternoon.

We as a fanbase have minor cause for concern going into this weekend. With a matchup with the Bengals looming, it’s tough to ignore the fact that 2022 is in fact the Year of the Tiger as far as China is concerned. Do I buy into Eastern practices? No, absolutely not. I’m obviously a die-hard Chiefs fan, a Missourian by trade, and a Kansas Citian by the grace of god, but by proxy, I am without question a Western Hemisphere guy. So what animal represents 2022 over here on the left side of the globe?

The dog. Notwithstanding the fact that dogs are always better than cats, or that this year has seen an exponential increase in certain people claiming to have “that dog” in them, it’s also very clearly been the year of the underdog for NFL bettors. In fact, when you look at Week’s 1-12 in the NFL over the course of the last 13 seasons, we’re kind of in the era of the dog—a dog dynasty, if you will. During this era, bettors who become connoisseurs of the canine have won at a clip of 53.1% in Weeks 1-12. It may feel like I’m setting you up for a “but in Week 13” turn for the worse, and I kind of am. From Week 13 on in those 13 seasons, underdogs drop to a 49.4% win rate. In the last three seasons, it’s been a touch lower at 49.2%.

What does this mean for those of you who have made a killing betting underdogs so far in 2022? As is the case with any gambling venture, always proceed with caution. It’s not that you can’t play the underdogs for the remainder of the season, it’s how you play them. There are two types of dogs developing at this time of the season: the long dog, and the short dog. In thinking about this in terms of actual dogs, I’m going to refer to this as the Dachshund Parallax.

The Dachshund Parallax is meant to show you that not all dogs are the same. At this point in the NFL schedule, there are clear favorites to make noise in the playoffs, clear favorites to be drafting in the top 5, and a whole lot of in-between. The playoff favorites will almost always find themselves on the winning end-of-point spreads from now until the end of the year unless you have two contenders facing off against each other. Think Chiefs/Bengals and 49ers/Dolphins this weekend, both tight spreads, and ultimately probably pick ’ems by the time the games kick off.

The rest of the groupings? Well, the teams in the middle—if they’re playing those contenders we mentioned above—will likely find themselves as “short dogs”, or sitting somewhere in the +3 to +6 point spread range. The ones who are truly bad? They will be your “long dogs”, who will be underdogs to the tune of 6+ points. So who do you take?

Short dogs – bet with these dogs, they’re still fighting for potential playoff berths and have been scrappy to this point in the season. This is the epitome of the “fight in the dog” adage

Long dogs – fade the hell out of these dogs. They have given up, are dumpster fires, and are likely more worried about their draft position at this point than winning one or two more games in 2022.

Now that we’ve established who to hammer and who to fade in the year of the dog, let’s get to this week’s picks. We’re upping the ante with five this week after again going 3-1 last week. The ultimate goal here is to walk away with more than three wins on Sunday, but I’ll likely end up 3-2 on the day.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (+1)

A short dog, a home dog, and a dog that’s coached by the coach with the most dog in him in the league, Dan Campbell? Give me Detroit to cover this all day long.

A lot of people have fallen in love with the idea that Trevor Lawrence is starting to figure it out in Jacksonville, and it appears after the Jags’ thrilling comeback win over the Ravens last week that he might be. Or that could be the Ravens still have a knack for being the collapse kings. Either way, Lawrence has been putting up good numbers and Jacksonville has entered the chat as one of the “next” teams to make a leap forward in 2023.

But Detroit is 3-1 straight up and 4-0 against the spread in its last 4 games and looks like the belief that Campbell has in his team is starting to translate into on-field success. They’re 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games against teams with losing records.

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens UNDER 38.5

The under trends on Broncos games are absolutely staggering.

  • Under is 7-0 in Denver’s last 7 games following a loss
  • Under is 4-0 in Denver’s last 4 road games
  • Under is 6-0 in Denver’s last 6 road games against winning teams
  • Under is 6-1 in Denver’s last 7 games on turf
  • Under is 39-16-1 in Denver’s last 56 games vs. AFC opponents
  • Under is 47-21-1 in Denver’s last 69 games overall

At this point, it seems the Broncos are deathly allergic to points, and these trends show just that.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears OVER 43.5

I betrayed the Bears last week taking the under in the game vs. the Jets and it bit me as my only loss of the week. Justin Fields is still listed as a game-time decision, but with the Packers coming to town and the Bears having a chance to officially bury their playoff chances I’d say Eberflus and the Bears staff will do everything in their power to make that happen. Packers and Bears overs are some of the hottest bets on the streets, so naturally, this will probably be a 17-13 snooze fest.

Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys UNDER 43.5

Unless the Cowboys score 40+ points on their own, I don’t see this total getting anywhere near 43.5. Unders are 14-3 in the Colts’ last 17 games, and the Cowboys’ defense is primed to make this an extremely difficult day for Jeff Saturday, Matt Ryan, and the Colts.

Seattle Seahawks -7.5 at Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are one of the long dogs that you need to fade the hell out of this weekend. After seeing the product they are putting on the field last week against the Chiefs and considering the fact that Aaron Donald will now also be out of the equation for L.A., Seattle should have little-to-no problem handing the Rams their ninth loss of the season. At least Sean McVay and the boys can start booking their January vacations a little early this year to avoid higher travel costs.

Stick with the Dachshund Parallax the rest of the year and see how it turns out for you. I don’t have the best betting track record, but it’s a cool-sounding principle and I’d like to think you’ll come out ahead. Best of luck to all bettors this weekend!

Note: Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Schedule