Hey Chiefs Kingdom, get in on Sunday’s NFL action with some of the best bets we see for Week 12 both before and after the Chiefs kickoff against the Rams Sunday afternoon.
Sometimes you just have to bet on yourself, even in the most strenuous circumstances. Just this week I took a flyer on myself to prepare the Thanksgiving bird for my entire family for the first time in my life. Was I nervous? Absolutely. Did my dad hover over my shoulder waiting for me to make a mistake after taking away his game day responsibility help at all? Absolutely not. The result? A world-class bird that was universally lauded by all who consume it. To say I walked away from the day filled with entirely too much food consumed and entirely too much pride in my culinary conquest engulfing my ego would be an understatement.
I feel similarly about my conquests thus far in bringing you, the Arrowhead Addict reader, home run picks each and every week as someone who long ago hung up his gambling cleats. If you’ve followed the program, you’re 14-7-1 in the picks that I’ve given you so far on AA, a 63.6% winning clip. I’m not saying I’ve still got it, but the numbers don’t lie.
Or do they? I’m taking a slightly different approach this week in the picks by looking at each team’s individual performances ATS as well on overs and unders, but also eyeing matchups heavily impacted by injuries. Yes, we’re at that point in the season where injuries are playing a massive impact on matchups that you’d traditionally look at and think “well that’s a guaranteed over” – think Rams vs Chiefs – and turning them into almost surefire unders. Here’s what I’ve got for you this week.
Washington Commanders -3.5 vs Atlanta Falcons
Have the Falcons been a nice story for far this week? Yeah, they absolutely have. And with the NFC South being so incredibly underwhelming so far, they are actually still in the playoff hunt. But don’t forget what you saw two weeks ago on Thursday Night Football, or what happened last week against the Chicago Bears.
Sure, the Falcons won against Chicago and cashed your over 48 provided yours truly, but they also lost Kyle Pitts in the process. Marcus Mariota has been questionable at best the past few weeks and there are whispers in Atlanta that it could be Desmond Ritter season already. Who knows. One thing I do know – Taylor Heinicke has the Commanders humming like a real contender.
Heinicke and Terry McLaurin are connecting at a 50% higher clip than Scary Terry and Carson Wentz were prior to Heinicke taking the reigns back as the Commanders starter. Heinicke is also 10-2-1 ATS since last November as the Commanders starter. Couple that with Atlanta having the worst road defense in the NFL, and I think the former XFL legend moves to 11-2-1 in his last 14 starts ATS.
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers UNDER 36.5
I’d probably take this under if it were 4 points lower if we’re being honest. There is not a single matchup from the NFL slate so far this season that I’ve had less interest in than the Broncos and Panthers for so many reasons. I would genuinely rather do a taste test on different brands of bleach than sit through this game.
It looks like the Panthers are going to be starting Sam Darnold which is laugh-out-loud funny at this point. PJ Walker starts and gets them a win, great. So to Baker Mayfield, whose offensive drives in a 3-point output against Baltimore looked like this: punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, field goal, punt, fumble, turnover on downs, interception, interception. Stunning.
So why not try Darnold out? What’s it going to hurt? It’s not like he has to light the scoreboard on fire against the Broncos, who would be 9-1 if they had put up 18 measly points per game in regulation in 2022. This is just a staggeringly bad offensive matchup, and with the under-hitting at a ~60% clip still, this seems like the safest place to hammer it this week.
Miami Dolphins -14 vs. Houston Texans
Listen, 14 points is a lot of points in the NFL. Betting a double-digit favorite is always an internal struggle. What if the Texans are chippy? What if it’s a 20-point game and Houston scores a garbage-time touchdown? I’m just going to flood you with reasons to place this bet:
- Miami is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game
- Miami is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 games following a bye
- Miami is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November
- Miami is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games against teams with a losing record
- Houston is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
- Davis Mills
Chicago Bears vs. New York Jets UNDER 38.5
Bears overs have been one of the more giving honey holes I’ve found in the last 3 weeks. Ever since Justin Fields has been unleashed as a dual-threat QB, Chicago has been points city with its offense, and its defense has been on the exact same page giving up a ton of points in the process.
Well, the dual-threat giveth and the dual threat taketh away. Fields is likely to be a game-time scratch on Sunday with a non-throwing shoulder injury he suffered last week against Atlanta. Bears coach Matt Eberflus appears to be approaching this the right way in evaluating the long-term risk and short-term gain with his young QB who appears to have some dog in him. Couple this with the fact that the Jets are starting Mike White and averaged like 3 inches per play last week against the Patriots in the second half and I see this one being excruciatingly low scoring.
Without a doubt the most boring picks I’ve given you: two home favorites and two unders. But sometimes it’s better to be boring than it is to try to be unnecessarily sexy. Why would I try to reinvent the wheel when I’m not even currently driving a car? Take these for what they’re worth, and always bet responsibly.
Note: Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.