What a Khalen Saunders contract extension could look like

After being selected 84th overall in the 2019 NFL Draft, Khalen Saunders has had a relatively quiet and unproductive NFL career, even for a third-round pick. However, after a somewhat slow start, he is in the midst of his most productive season in the NFL. So far through 10 games in 2022, Saunders has recorded 2.5 sacks, compared to just 1 across his previous 22 regular season games in his career.

One can argue that this breakout season couldn’t have come at a better time for Saunders. He’s scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent this March, and he will most certainly be looking for a raise compared to his current contract, which currently averages less than $1 million a season.

It’s difficult to gauge what type of contract Saunders will sign this offseason since he hasn’t played a ton of football in the NFL since being drafted in 2019. Despite this being year four in the league, for him, he’s only played in 32 career regular season games.

Khalen Saunders is in the midst of the most productive season of his career. What could a potential contract look like for the soon-to-be free agent?

When attempting to project a potential contract extension for a player, the best option is to find a fairly accurate comparison for that player and then calculate a contract based on the differences between the two.

The best comparison I could find for Khalen Saunders, an interior defensive lineman drafted 84th overall in 2019 and with 3.5 career sacks (and counting) through 3.5 seasons, was current Chicago Bears defensive tackle Justin Jones.

Jones, who was also drafted 84th overall (in 2018), recorded 4.5 sacks through four seasons with the Chargers in 2018 through 2021. After becoming an unrestricted free agent in March of this year, he signed a two-year, $12 million contract, with about $7 million in guarantees with the Bears. At the time of the signing, Jones was 25 years old, while Saunders will be 26 this upcoming March.

Here is the breakdown of Justin Jones’ current contract with Chicago:

• Two years, $12 million
• $5 million signing bonus
• $7.05 million fully guaranteed
• 2022 breakdown: $1.05 million in base salary; $2.5 million prorated bonus; $1 million roster bonus; $50k workout bonus; $4.6 million cap hit
• 2023 breakdown: $4.8 million in base salary; $2.5 million prorated bonus; $100k workout bonus; $7.4 million cap hit
• $2 million of his 2023 salary becomes guaranteed on March 21
• Before March 21, Chicago could cut Jones, saving them $4.9 million against the cap, while leaving $2.5 million in dead money

Another thing to consider is that Jones played 51 regular-season games over his first four seasons, although Saunders could only play 39, at most, through the end of his rookie contract. Both players are more rotational players than consistent starters. Saunders has hovered around average his entire career, while Jones was above average in 2020, playing very well against the run that season, but he’s been average outside of that year.

Assuming Saunders’ production doesn’t drastically increase over the final month of the seasons, plus the playoffs, I feel that it is a safe bet that he will sign a contract similar to what Justin Jones signed in terms of length and structure. Unless the Chiefs add some dummy years for cap purposes, I project a 1 or 2-year deal, with an out after year one if it is a 2-year contract. Also, since Jones played a lot more than Saunders over their first several seasons, I can’t imagine the latter will garner more money on a new contract than the former.

Here is a simple projection for what Khalen Saunders and the Chiefs could agree to prior to the start of free agency:

• Two years, $10 million
• $3.5 million signing bonus
• $6 million fully guaranteed
• 2023 breakdown: $1.08 million in base salary; $1.75 million prorated bonus; $500k in non-prorated bonuses; $3.33 million cap hit
• 2024 breakdown: $4.62 million in base salary; $1.75 million prorated bonus; $300k in non-prorated bonuses; $6.67 million cap hit
• Prior to any potential dates where 2024 money becomes guaranteed, Kansas City could cut Saunders, saving them $4.92 million against the cap, while leaving $1.75 million in dead money

This was purely a projection based on what a comparable player signed for last off-season. Depending on how Saunders plays down the stretch, the numbers could very well differ from the projection. Also, the structure is everything when it comes to NFL contracts, including total guarantees, the size of the signing bonus, the number of years, and more. This conversation may also end up being moot as one or both parties may opt to part ways and Saunders signs with another team after free agency opens on March 15, 2023.

Khalen Saunders is not the most important free agent for the Chiefs this offseason, but he is one of the most intriguing cases. He’s not a player Kansas City needs to retain, like JuJu Smith-Schuster or Orlando Brown Jr., but he’s definitely not a player who will likely want a change of scenery, such as Derrick Nnadi or Ronald Jones. Depending on his finish to the season, he’s somewhere in the middle, but I feel most would learn toward bringing him back, especially in the midst of what appears to be a career season.