NFL Standings, Week 11: Chiefs now control AFC West

In Week 11, the New York Jets and New England Patriots faced off in Foxborough, the Buffalo Bills welcomed the Cleveland Browns to town, the Las Vegas Raiders visited Denver to take on the Broncos.

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Chargers hosted the Kansas City Chiefs at SoFi Stadium, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals squared off, while the Tennessee Titans, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, and Baltimore Ravens all played against NFC opponents. The Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins all had their bye week.

Here is what the AFC Standings look like after Week 11:

Before the start of Week 11, the Kansas City Chiefs were the favorites to come out of the AFC and advance to Super Bowl LVII. FiveThirtyEight (QB Adjusted) had the Chiefs as the team with the best chance to win the Super Bowl out of all teams in the NFL with a 21% chance to win it all prior to Week 11. After Kansas City, the Buffalo Bills were at 12%, the Baltimore Ravens were at 7%, the Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins were both at 5%, and the Cincinnati Bengals were at 2%.

The Tennessee Titans beat the Green Bay Packers 27-17 on Thursday Night Football. The Buffalo Bills topped the Cleveland Browns after a rough start to the game on offense. The Houston Texans got smoked by the Washington Commanders at home. The Indianapolis Colts couldn’t quite hold off the Philadelphia Eagles as they lost in Jeff Saturday’s first home game as interim head coach. The New England Patriots beat the New York Jets after a last-minute punt return touchdown by rookie Marcus Jones.

The Baltimore Ravens beat the Carolina Panthers in a game that was closer than what many expected. The Las Vegas Raiders went into Denver and beat the Broncos in overtime. The Cincinnati Bengals got their revenge on the Pittsburgh Steelers with a double-digit victory on the road. The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Los Angeles Chargers in an amazing game.

Despite being viewed as paper tigers among many fans, the Titans should be taken seriously by everyone. The Bills may have gotten back on track, while the Browns’ season may be over after their sixth loss in seven games. The Texans are inching closer to the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. The Colts may have blown their best opportunity to get back into the playoff hunt. Zach Wilson is becoming an issue for the Jets and the Patriots will need to rely on their defense and special teams to beat quality teams going forward.

The Ravens won but they didn’t look good on offense coming out of their bye week. Both the Raiders and Broncos both fought hard in the “worst team in the AFC West” contest held on Sunday afternoon. The Bengals may have figured it out, even without Joe Mixon for much of the game, and the Steelers are in danger of their first losing season under Mike Tomlin. The Chiefs more or less locked up the AFC West as Patrick Mahomes is now the clear MVP favorite in the NFL and the Chargers’ best hope is now the #7 seed.

After Week 11, seven teams in the AFC have a losing record, eight teams have a winning record, and one team is at exactly 0.500. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Kansas City Chiefs are still the team with the best chance to win the Super Bowl out of all AFC teams with a 23% chance to win it all. After Kansas City, the Buffalo Bills are at 11%, the Tennessee Titans are at 7%, the Baltimore Ravens are at 6%, the Miami Dolphins are at 4%, and the Cincinnati Bengals are at 2%.

In the race for the #1 seed in the AFC, per FiveThirtyEight, the Chiefs have the best chance to finish atop the conference in the regular season standings at 58%, with the Bills second at 17%. After Kansas City/Buffalo, the following teams are the Ravens and Dolphins at 10% and 7%, respectively.

The Buffalo Bills may have bounced back but the Kansas City Chiefs are the favorites in the AFC. Bar none. The Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, Tennessee Titans, and Cincinnati Bengals all have an outside chance to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LVII but the Chiefs will likely host the AFC Championship Game for a fifth consecutive season, barring an upset.