NFL Standings, Week 10: KC Chiefs own top seed in AFC

In Week 10, the Denver Broncos and Tennessee Titans faced off in Nashville, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Kansas City Chiefs squared off at Arrowhead, the Cleveland Browns traveled to Miami to play the Dolphins, the Las Vegas Raiders welcomed the Indianapolis Colts to town, while the Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills, and Los Angeles Chargers all played against NFC opponents. The Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots, and New York Jets all had their bye week.

Here is what the AFC Standings look like after Week 10:

Before the start of Week 10, the Buffalo Bills were the favorites to come out of the AFC and advance to Super Bowl LVII. FiveThirtyEight (QB Adjusted) had the Bills as the team with the best chance to win the Super Bowl out of all AFC teams with a 17% chance to win it all. After Buffalo, the Chiefs were at 17%, the Ravens were at 6%, the Titans at 4%, the Dolphins at 3%, and the Bengals were at 2%.

The Chiefs beat the Jaguars by ten points at home. The Titans defeated the Broncos in Ryan Tannehill’s return. The Dolphins crushed the Browns in another offensive explosion. The Texans fell to the Giants on the road. The Steelers beat the Saints coming out of their bye week. The Bills lost a BRUTAL overtime game to the Vikings. The Colts defeated the Raiders in Jeff Saturday’s coaching debut. The Chargers blew a 1–point on the road against the Niners in a loss.

The Chiefs had a nice day on offense but were sloppy on special teams, while the Jaguars couldn’t quite keep up, although Trevor Lawrence played pretty well. The Titans look like a sleeper team in the conference, while the Broncos’ playoff chances are fading. The Dolphins will be a serious problem come playoff time and the Browns will look to play spoiler when December rolls around.

The Texans are definitely in the market for an upgrade over Davis Mills at quarterback. Hopefully, Sunday was the start of something good for Kenny Pickett and the Steelers. Josh Allen may have just had a poor enough game to (temporarily) drop himself from the MVP race. It’s safe to say the Raiders’ season is officially over, while the Colts may now have life with Jeff Saturday. If the Chargers lose to Kansas City in Week 11, their hopes of an AFC West title will be all but over.

After Week 10, seven teams in the AFC have a losing record and nine teams have a winning record. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Chiefs now have the best chance to win the Super Bowl out of all AFC teams with a 21% chance to win it all. After Kansas City, the Bills are at 12%, the Ravens are at 6%, the Titans and Dolphins are both at 4%, and then the Cincinnati Bengals are at 2%.

In the race for the #1 seed in the AFC, per FiveThirtyEight, the Chiefs now have the best chance to finish atop the conference in the regular season standings at 49%, with the Bills second at 21%. After Kansas City/Buffalo, the following teams are the Ravens and Dolphins at 12% and 10%, respectively.

Despite a rough loss to Minnesota, the Bills are still a heavy contender in the AFC, although the Chiefs are now the undisputed favorites. The Dolphins and Ravens aren’t far behind but quarterback play is a primary reason why most people won’t group them in with Buffalo and Kansas City. The Bengals (again) and Titans could also be surprise contenders come January. If the Chiefs can keep racking up wins, the road to Super Bowl will once again go through Arrowhead.