Jaguars at Chiefs predictions: AA writers’ picks for Week 10

KANSAS CITY, MO - NOVEMBER 06: Khalen Saunders #99 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates his quarterback sack during overtime against the Tennessee Titans at Arrowhead Stadium on November 6, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)
KANSAS CITY, MO - NOVEMBER 06: Khalen Saunders #99 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates his quarterback sack during overtime against the Tennessee Titans at Arrowhead Stadium on November 6, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)

The Kansas City Chiefs haven’t faced the Jacksonville Jaguars since Week 1 of the 2019 season. Many fans may recall wide receiver Sammy Watkins scored three touchdowns in that game, but remarkably, he did not score again that regular season (he did, of course, score the game-clinching touchdown in the AFC Championship Game).

The Chiefs have faced every other team in the AFC since that game, which was the season opener of Kansas City’s Super Bowl run in 2019, and though the Chiefs only have six of the 22 players who started for them that September day in Jacksonville, the winning atmosphere has never hedged.

The 2022 version of the Jaguars looks remarkably different as well, as they are led by head coach (and former Chiefs offensive coordinator) Doug Pederson and sophomore signal-caller Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars enter this game at 3-6, having just ended a five-game skid with a comeback win over the Raiders last week.

Writer recap

Fun fact: Six of our writers correctly predicted 17 points for the Titans last week. Lucas Strozinsky was closest with his 23-17 prediction. Here’s a glance at our writer’s picks for the Chiefs and Jaguars in Week 10.

Patrick Allen (6-2)
The Chiefs sure don’t like making winning easy. It seems like for every game they wipe the floor with their opponent (Arizona, Tampa Bay, San Francisco) they have two games where they really struggle to take care of business. The Jaguars are a solid football team with weapons and just like the Titans, while the Chiefs are the better team, if KC doesn’t execute, they can lose. The Jaguars are middle of the pack on offense and defense but they have enough weapons to hurt KC. If the Chiefs can stop missing kicks, run the ball a little better, and roll out the run defense they used in the second half vs. the Titans, they should win this one by a touchdown. If they don’t, it could be a trap game for the AFC West leaders.
Chiefs 27, Jaguars 23

Adam Best (5-2)
The Jags typically resemble a de facto college team but they have a bit more talent than usual this season. Nonetheless, Patrick Mahomes is a man on a mission and Jacksonville is merely a speed bump.
Chiefs 38, Jaguars 17

Matt Conner (6-2)
The Jags are an ascending team with a lot of the right pieces in place, but they’re still an offseason or two from really making the leap and they’re definitely not in the Chiefs’ range. K.C. is too well-coached to overlook anyone these days.
Chiefs 31, Jaguars 23

Bransen Gibson (6-2)
This clash has trap game written all over it. The Chiefs have their eyes on the AFC’s one seed, but to get there they will need to avoid a second embarrassing loss to an underwhelming AFC South opponent. Fortunately, after the horrendous loss to Indianapolis in Week 3, I think the Chiefs will be fully focused and ready to roll this time around. I’m tipping KC to put this game away early, with some late points making the score look closer than it really was.
Chiefs 31, Jaguars 24

Lyle Graversen (6-2)
This feels like one of those games where the Chiefs are going to sleepwalk through a game against an inferior opponent which will cause it to be a lot closer than it should be. The Chiefs are coming off a super physical late-night overtime game and the young Jaguars team has enough talent to keep it interesting if KC isn’t on their “A” game.
Chiefs 27 Jaguars 20

Anthony Hatton (6-2)
The clash between Doug Pederson’s Jacksonville Jaguars and Andy Reid should have some excitement. Pederson isn’t afraid to call the unexpected plays. Mecole Hardman not being active is a big question mark but there are too many weapons on the Chiefs offense. It should be a race to see who can get to 30 points. The wise bet would be the highest-scoring team in the NFL.
Chiefs 31, Jaguars 27

Scott Loring (4-4)
I’m really trying hard not to overthink this one. I don’t like Orlando Brown and Andrew Wylie’s matchups against Josh Allen and Travon Walker, and I don’t like the way the Chiefs matchup against Travis Etienne, who is one of the hottest backs in football. Since the James Robinson trade, Etienne averages 126 rush yards per game, and the Chiefs have given up 138 rush yards per game in the last four games. I also think Doug Pederson is going to throw his entire playbook at Steve Spagnuolo in order to try to beat Andy Reid and keep the Jaguars’ AFC South hopes on life support. It’ll be closer than it should be, but Mahomes and Juju will prove to be too much in the end.
Chiefs 33, Jaguars 24

Ellen Mathis (7-1)
The Chiefs finally get a noon game today! Will this factor into how the Chiefs perform? I doubt it. The Jaguars are kind of a mess and simply not a very good team. Trevor Lawrence has flashes that show he could be a great quarterback, but there is a lack of consistency. If the Chiefs offensive line can hold up against the Jaguars pass rush, the Chiefs will run away with this one. I think the offensive line will perform well and the Chiefs waltz into another win. Oh, and I think the Chiefs defense gets two turnovers.
Chiefs 34, Jaguars 16

Jacob Milham (6-2)
If you believe in trap games, the Jacksonville Jaguars will present an unexpected challenge. They are one of two teams with a losing record but a positive scoring difference. Trevor Lawrence is a competent QB, and Traves Etienne Jr. will test the Chiefs defense. The Jaguars have one of the league’s worst defensive back groups. so they will be the difference. I like the Chiefs to win, but not sure it will be a dominant one.
Chiefs 35, Jaguars 27

Greg Morse (6-2)
The Chiefs continue their AFC South tour with a win and come out sporting a 2-1 record against the division. The defense totally shuts down Trevor Lawrence while Andy Reid out-duels his protege Doug Peterson.
Chiefs 31 Jaguars 10

KC Proctor (6-2)
FanDuel has listed the Chiefs as 9.5-point favorites, and although we haven’t been good ATS this year, I think this is an attainable number. Spags is going to be in his bag and will make the day long for Trevor Lawrence. We’ve already seen this defense toe the line against the league’s top rushers, so I’m not concerned with Etienne. Big day for the Chiefs on both sides of the ball.
Chiefs 32, Jaguars 16

Charles Robinson (7-1)
There are a number of narratives going into this week’s matchup with the Jags. Joe Cullen’s revenge game, Lawrence vs Mahomes in a battle from the opposite ends of the expectation scale, the “what could have been” aspect of the Josh Allen trade rumors. But one sticks out to me: underdogs of 3+ points are 52-28 (.650 winning percentage) in 2022. This could be a scary game that gives the Chiefs naysayers some extra gas on air and online next week. I think the Jags keep it close but the Chiefs pull away in the end.
Chiefs 27, Jaguars 21

Stacy Smith
The Chiefs extend their win streak with a victory over a familiar face. The Jaguars are solid defensively but don’t have the firepower to keep up with the potent (albeit inconsistent) Kansas City offense. Jacksonville scores late to make the box score more presentable, but they still ultimately fall in Arrowhead.
Chiefs 28, Jaguars 21

Lucas Strozinsky (6-2)
The good news for the Chiefs is that the Jaguars do absolutely nothing on defense better than the Titans. The Jaguars can stop the run pretty well but have a middle-of-the-pack pass rush, a below-average secondary, and also struggle to tackle. If the Jaguars decide to cover Travis Kelce with their linebackers, expect #87 to go off for 150+ yards. On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars are well-coached, can pass-block very well, and have underrated weapons. Their problem is that Trevor Lawrence has been hit-and-miss this season, and he had a great game last week, so I’m expecting a mediocre, at best, game from the former #1 overall pick. This would have been a trap game for me but hopefully, the close call against Tennessee is a wake-up call for Kansas City.
Chiefs 28, Jaguars 17

Grant Tuttle (7-1)
Trevor Lawrence gets his first Arrowhead experience. The Chiefs did a nice job against Tennessee on defense but sputtered offensively. Don’t expect that for the second week in a row. Look for Mahomes to showcase, once again, why he is the best quarterback in the world. All Chiefs in this one.
Chiefs 41, Jaguars 13

Schedule