Chiefs Kingdom’s betting guide to NFL’s Week 10 action

KANSAS CITY, MO - NOVEMBER 06: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates in the endzone before kickoff against the Tennessee Titans at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on November 6, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
KANSAS CITY, MO - NOVEMBER 06: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates in the endzone before kickoff against the Tennessee Titans at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on November 6, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

For the first time since Week 3 the Chiefs will play in the early slot on Sunday, but don’t let that stop you from betting on games all day.

I’ve got to come clean about something. Obviously, I follow the ins and outs of the Kansas City Chiefs on a daily basis. Between updates on social media, the Arrowhead Addict Slack chat, and the custom alerts I have set up for PFF grades, I know (mostly) what’s going on with them and could talk shop at a high level with most of my Chiefs Kingdom peers, outside of the ones who have sources directly in the building: so roughly 40% of Twitter.

Do you know what I suck at? Keeping up with the rest of the league. That’s why these gambling picks are not just a way for you to make a little extra money if you follow my lead, it’s also a way for me to grow my knowledge of the teams that aren’t directly in my Chiefs-tunnel-vision-defined line of sight. It’s a benefit for both you, the reader, and I the author and guy who wants to learn more and be more well-rounded. Let me rephrase that: it’s beneficial to both of us as long as my picks keep hitting.

So far in the two gambling journeys you’ve taken with me, we’ve done pretty well—if you’ve followed the rules. 5-2-1 on the season and that’s doing two things I’ve never done before in my past life as a gambler: banking on unders, and betting mostly on underdogs. Well, where there’s smoke there’s usually fire, and there have certainly been smoke signals coming from those two directions, particularly in the front half of the 2022 NFL season.

As I’ve done each week, I want to give you a glimpse behind the curtain of the overarching trends I’m looking at while making these weekly picks.

  • Underdogs of 3+ points are 52-28 ATS in 2022
  • Home teams are 64-68-5 against the spread in 2022
  • Unders are still hitting at a 60% clip (81-54)

So, surely I’m going to take a bunch of road dogs this week, right? Well, kind of. They are ripe for the picking. 11 out of the 13 games between Sunday and Monday night feature home favorites, and several of them are north of the 3+ point spread I mentioned in the first point :

  • Bills -6.5 vs Vikings
  • Chiefs -9.5 vs. Jaguars
  • Giants -4.5 vs. Texans
  • Raiders -4 vs. Colts
  • 49ers -7.5 vs. Chargers
  • Eagles -11 vs. Commanders

How many of those do I think are safe spreads for the home teams, you might be asking? None of them, that’s how many.

Let’s get to the 4 official picks, with a bonus parlay to wrap us up.

NFL Week 10 Official Picks

Minnesota Vikings +6.5 at Buffalo Bills

Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills over 44.5

Yes, this game brings us our first BOGO deal of the year, although I’m only counting it as one pick. Feel free to use these in a same game parlay if you’d like. This is without a doubt the premier matchup of the weekend, with the 7-1 Vikings looking to prove that they’re really real against the 6-2 Bills who everyone already knows are very real. Josh Allen’s elbow is a huge question mark in this one, but there are enough offensive weapons on either side of the ball that I would expect the over to hit in this one, although it might be close.

This is really an atrocious pick if you look at the numbers, considering the Bills are 1-7 to the under this year, but I like the multiple “revenge game” aspects in this one. Obviously Stefon Diggs, and if we get lucky we’ll see another one with the main reason why I think the Vikings cover 6.5 here: a steady dose of Kase Keenum. If Josh Allen can’t go, Keenum should be serviceable in his stead, but should also open the door to allowing the Vikings to easily cover 6.5 and potentially win outright.

Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders -4

If the Raiders don’t blow the Colts out of the water in this game, they need to clean house. I could be wrong, but I think Jeff Saturday is going to be absolutely lost as the head coach of the Colts. Add to it that his offensive play caller is going to be a 30-year-old dude who has never called plays before AND the Colts just put Shaq Leonard on the IR. This one should be an absolute trouncing.

Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers Under 45.5

The Chargers pulled one out last week in Atlanta without Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, but I don’t see that happening this week against the 49ers in Santa Clara. The 49ers’ defense has held their opponents under their individual totals in 6 out of 8 games this year and without the variety that their two top wideouts bring to their offensive scheme, the Chargers aren’t bucking that trend in primetime.

Seattle Seahawks +2.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Germany)

Another edition of breakfast ball this Sunday. How in the world are the Bucs the favorites here? Are the football gods just trying to will Tom Brady to another “only quarterback in history” distinction? If he and the Bucs were to win he would technically be the only quarterback in history to win a game in 4 different countries (U.S., Mexico, U.K., and now Germany). Another notch in the belt for ol’ Tommy, I guess?

Realistically, I don’t see the Bucs winning this game. The Seahawks are just a better team, plain and simple. Both teams have to deal with the rigors of playing an international game, so there’s no real “home field” advantage. The Buccaneers are dead and it appears that the Seahawks are on a post-Russ mission from God to prove that they are better without him – and they’re doing just that.

Also, the Seahawks are 4-0 straight up and against the spread in their last 4 games, winning all by double digits. They’ve quietly become the league’s best defense in yards allowed, and Tariq Woolen is the kind of corner that can take Mike Evans away from Tom Brady and make it a long afternoon.

Also, two very fun facts about this game:

  • Tom Brady has never covered a spread against a Geno Smith-led team (0-4 ATS)
  • 3,000,000 ticket requests were logged for this game. There are about 80,000 seats in the stadium. The entire city of Munich has a population of just under 1.5 million. Talk about a draw.

Bonus Parlay

  • Seahawks +2.5
  • Jags +9.5 (sorry)
  • Vikings +6.5
  • Cardinals +3

Odds on this one are +1264 on FanDuel Sportsbook, meaning a $10 bet would pay out $126.48. Obviously the more you lay down, the more you take home, but just some food for thought. Also, there are still determinations to be made in this game, but if you’re feeling compelled to HAMMER an under today, try to get the Rams/Cardinals before we know 100% if either QB will be ready to play.

Note: Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Schedule