Chiefs vs Jaguars: Prediction and odds Week 10

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick MahomesMandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick MahomesMandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports /

The AFC-leading Kansas City Chiefs host the AFC South’s third-place Jacksonville Jaguars at Arrowhead on Sunday. Let’s take a look at the opening lines.

Another nail-biting primetime matchup came and went in Week 9 on Sunday Night Football, and the battle-tested Kansas City Chiefs have seemingly survived the gauntlet of their season. Week 10 marks the beginning of a far simpler stretch of the 2022 campaign, which will feature matchups with the bottom halves of the AFC South and West divisions. Week 10 is a matchup with the former as the Chiefs are set to host the 3-6 Jacksonville Jaguars at Arrowhead Stadium.

Chiefs vs Jaguars Week 10 odds

FanDuel Sportsbook, presumably making note of the Chiefs’ hard-fought victory against the Titans in Week 9, is keeping K.C. favored by a single-digit margin. The opening spread of 9.5 is still a two-score favor for the Chiefs but is far less daunting for bettors than last week’s margin of 13.5. The points total for Chiefs vs Jaguars is set at 50.5.

On one hand, the Titans marched into Arrowhead in Week 9 without their starting quarterback, which gave justification to the near two-touchdown spread. On the other, it’s hard to project the Jaguars’ offensive situation as dramatically superior. They did just overcome a 17-point deficit against the Raiders last week—LOL—but the promise of their offense has been wishy-washy at best through nine weeks.

The Jaguars’ defense, led by 2022 first-overall draft pick Trayvon Walker and Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate Devin Lloyd, has been stout. Years of top-heavy draft selections have finally put a competitive defensive product on the field. Offensively, however, Jacksonville has had its fair share of woes. The Jaguars are averaging eight points less than the Chiefs on a per-game basis, and are likely to remain in the middle of the pack for offensive efficiency throughout the year.

Trevor Lawrence has flashed minimal excellence this year, and the overhaul of free-agent wide receivers this offseason has performed modestly. Travis Etienne has emerged as a legitimate bell cow running back, but the team just isn’t that good.

Chiefs vs Jaguars Week 10 prediction

The star power on the Jaguars’ defense is worthy of acknowledgment, but it presents an inferior challenge than that of the Titans last week. The Chiefs are only 3-5 against the spread, but this matchup brings “get right” vibes for the offense rather than trap game concerns.

I like the Chiefs by a convincing margin, creating even more space between themselves and the bottom feeders of the division. Expect to see Spagnuolo at his best, keeping Trevor Lawrence uncomfortable all day. Kansas City covers, but the game goes under 50.5.

Prediction: Chiefs 32, Jaguars 16

Note: Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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