4 reasons why Bills vs. Chiefs is NFL’s biggest game of 2022

The winning QB likely takes the lead in the 2022 NFL MVP race

With some exceptions, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are most people’s Top 2 quarterbacks in football (again, in that order), and deservedly so. Since they are the premier passers in the NFL, and because both of their teams are atop their divisions, both players are in running for the NFL’s MVP award. According to BetMGM, Josh Allen is the current favorite to win the award, but Patrick Mahomes is not far behind as he’s in second place. If Allen’s Bills win this game on Sunday, he will very likely stay the betting favorite. If Mahomes’ Chiefs come out victorious Sunday evening, he could find himself as the favorite in some sportsbooks.

One trend that’s fairly reliable when identifying who could win MVP is the regular season success of a quarterback’s team. Earning the #1 seed is critical for advancing to the Super Bowl but it also is crucial for who wins MVP. Since Adrian Peterson won in 2012-13, all ten NFL MVPs have been quarterbacks. Do you know how many of those ten finished earned the #1 seed in their conference that season? Eight (Aaron Rodgers in 2014 and Matt Ryan in 2016 are the exceptions). Do you know how many of the ten did not have a bye in the playoffs that season? Zero. Zero of the previous ten NFL MVPs have played on Wild Card Weekend, while only two of the past 10 failed to earn the #1 seed. As mentioned earlier in this article, the Bills/Chiefs winning this game will be extremely important for who is the #1 seed come playoff times, which in turn is telling for who will be awarded MVP for the 2022-23 season. Yes, finishing with the #1 seed isn’t a prerequisite to being crowned MVP, but it does go a long way.

Even if we remove the significance this game has towards the AFC’s top seed, the winning quarterback of this game is more likely to win MVP because media members will remember that Patrick Mahomes/Josh Allen beat Josh Allen/Patrick Mahomes last October when they cast their votes for MVP this January. Whoever wins also makes it a relatively safe bet that they’ll finish with 11 or more victories and win their division at the end of the regular season. This game would also, in all likelihood, provide the winning quarterback with their “MVP moment” since both teams are elite of the elite in the NFL.

Right now, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are the clear front-runners to win MVP, with Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson right behind them. If Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills win on Sunday, he will only become a stronger favorite. If Patrick Mahomes’ Kansas City Chiefs come out on top, he could finish himself as the betting favorite on Monday morning to win the award with which he won four years ago.