How the Kansas City Chiefs can beat the Buffalo Bills

Chiefs Defense vs. Bills Offense

The Chiefs have one of the top ten defenses in the league in several key categories, and that is something for Chiefs fans to be really proud of. However, much like the Bills’ defense, there is concern that the Chiefs have played some lower-end offenses. The offensive rankings are a bit nicer to look at than the Bills were, but not significantly so.

This side of the ball will come down to one battle: The Chiefs’ rookie cornerbacks versus the Bills’ elite wide receivers. This is not a match-up the Chiefs should be favored to win. Without Trent McDuffie (unlikely to play Sunday) and Rashad Fenton (out Sunday), the Chiefs will be relying on Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams to work against Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.

The Chiefs do have a bit of an advantage in the front seven, where George Karlaftis, Chris Jones, and Frank Clark will all have good opportunities to take down Josh Allen. However, Allen likes to run when the pocket collapses, which puts the quarterback duties on the linebackers—particularly Nick Bolton, as he will be the longest-tenured Chiefs’ linebacker on the field with Willie Gay still serving his suspension. That match-up is less one-sided but still leans in favor of the Bills.

How to beat the Bills

First thing first, tackling. There were a ton of broken arm tackles last week by Josh Jacobs, and where Devin Singletary may be easier to bring down than Jacobs, that can not be a trend that is allowed to continue. This is especially important when it comes to Allen, who runs hard, stays upright through contact, and does not slide, making him the antithesis of how to run as a quarterback. Especially this season, Allen has been putting his shoulder down and taking the contact to defenders to grab one or two extra yards on runs, and it is essential that the Chiefs make sure to be just as physical to him as he is to them. The rule of thumb when hitting quarterbacks is to probably just not do that or be extra cautious, but that rule has to be thrown out in preparation for this game.

The second step, be explosive early. The Bills’ defense makes good halftime adjustments, but they come into the game flat. Take advantage of that. Send Marquez Valdez-Scantling long for big plays. Use Mecole Hardman’s speed on jet sweeps. Get the screen game going early with Clyde Edwards Helaire. Then, when the second half comes up and the defense adjusts to the pass-heavy offense with blitz packages and pass rush stunts, switch to run-heavy offense. Wait for Von Miller to shoot past Orlando Brown, then squeeze CEH or Pacheco past him for an outside run. Bleed the second half clock and do not let Buffalo turn the second half into a boat race.

Next, do not, under any circumstances, allow Stefon Diggs to be one-on-one with a rookie corner. Give support over the top with Justin Reid or Juan Thornhill, and keep Adams from getting down the field. That Steve Spagnuolo urge to blitz kicking in? Cool, as long as you leave enough men in coverage to give support on Stefon Diggs.

Finally, be the grim reaper. If given the opportunity to choose between being conservative and going for the finishing blow, put the ball in Mahomes’ hands, and go for the knockout. Drive the field nine minutes at a time, using the entirety of the play clock. If the Bills seem to be gaining some momentum, act like it is basketball and call a timeout at a fairly uncomfortable moment for them. Make this game boring for Bills fans, and you should come out with a win.