How does Patrick Mahomes perform as an underdog?
By KC Proctor
5. November 19, 2018 @ Los Angeles (Rams); Chiefs +3
This game is remembered by many as the best to ever be played. The Chiefs and Rams were each 9-1 when they met up on Monday Night Football in Week 11 of the 2018 season. Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff each passed for over 400 yards and had at least four touchdowns. Mahomes finished the night at 33/46 for 478 yards, 6 touchdowns, and three interceptions.
The Chiefs lost the game 51-54 after Mahomes’ third INT of the night came on a forced pass to Tyreek Hill with 25 seconds remaining on the game clock. The game was Mahomes’ second—and most recent—loss as an underdog, and with the spread set at 3 points in favor of Los Angeles, it went down as a push ATS. Pat became 4-0-1 against the spread and 3-2 straight-up as a dog.
Predictably, on a night like that one, Mahomes and Hill linked up big time. Tyreek had 10 receptions for 215 yards and two touchdowns.
6. December 8, 2019 @ New England; Chiefs +3
Following the all-time shootout between the Chiefs and Rams which resulted in a push on the spread, it took 20 weeks for NFL oddsmakers to label Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs as underdogs again. It came in Week 13 of 2019 when the Chiefs traveled to New England for another showdown with Tom Brady. This was the first meeting between these two since the Patriots knocked off K.C. in the AFC Championship game the season before, and the Chiefs played with a chip on their shoulder.
Nobody knew it yet, but the Chiefs were just six games away from ending a 50-year Super Bowl drought, and for the first time in Mahomes’ career as an underdog, the defense took center stage. Pat finished the game 26/40 for 283 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. The Chiefs’ defense held Brady under 200 yards passing and picked him off once as well.
The game resulted in a gritty 23-16 victory for the Chiefs, and Mahomes advanced to 5-0-1 ATS and 4-2 straight-up as an underdog.
7. September 28, 2020 @ Baltimore; Chiefs +3.5
Finally, the most recent time that the Chiefs were marked down as dogs came in late September of 2020 when they traveled to Baltimore to face the Ravens on Monday Night Football. The way that this game played out, with the Chiefs not just covering 3.5 points, but winning outright by two touchdowns (34-20), is why we rarely see Patrick Mahomes teams labeled as underdogs.
On that night, Mahomes went 31/42 passing for 385 yards, 4 passing TDs, and 1 rushing score. After his first five times as an underdog being highlighted by one standout performer on the offense, Pat took this opportunity to go off on his own. His four passing touchdowns were to four different receivers, and it was his ninth career game featuring four or more touchdowns.
With such stout career records ATS and outright as an underdog, it is no surprise that Sunday will be the first time Patrick Mahomes has faced negative odds in a home game. Overcoming Vegas’ line and topping the Bills will be no simple task, but history shows us that the odds may actually be on our side.